{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3c4dffc6-2151-494c-ab96-29398228af16", "symbol": "ENPH", "name": "Enphase Energy, Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 85.149, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -23.608, "architecture_energy": 37.012, "architecture_maturity": 7.077, "architecture_confidence": 60.122, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.92, "rotation_up": 14.56, "upward_expansion": 18.82, "deceleration": 57.23, "rotation_down": 67.69, "downward_expansion": 48.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 694.146667, 740.152182, 793.207667, 783.423699 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 719.0, "trend_reference": 767.717999, "distance_from_trend": -0.063458, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1333.49391, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.460815, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.242902, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.163953, "excess_performance": -0.109287, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.063458, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.110226, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.460815, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.122022, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.002429, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.174742, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.163953, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.844535, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5655, "relative_activity": 1.011112, "balance": 2.844535, "dry_up": 0.591291, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.1731, "annualized_volatility": 0.919614, "from_high_reference": -0.429365, "from_low_reference": 0.467347 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 767.717999, "fair_value_reference": 1333.49391, "structural_low": 530.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.056567, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.066162, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.751592, "worst_return": -0.179243, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.001201, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.017248, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.281403, "worst_return": -0.226126, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.279643, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.275104, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.332215, "worst_return": -0.452042, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.491292, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.128968, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.224392, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.190476, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.17022, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004777, 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839.561336, 903.884365, 831.649144, 799.657204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 788.599976, "volume": 4047, "typical_volume": 5104.6, "trend": 755.768665, "fair_value": 1381.492371, "relative_strength": 9.319061, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.967597, "energy": 25.981856, "activity_lines": [ 808.864661, 886.258179, 830.94738, 802.196644 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 727.0, "volume": 4926, "typical_volume": 5345.9, "trend": 760.168665, "fair_value": 1366.941089, "relative_strength": 0.971806, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.207367, "energy": 23.656842, "activity_lines": [ 771.727328, 853.730179, 824.399856, 800.340601 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 649.200012, "volume": 679, "typical_volume": 5376.95, "trend": 762.475332, "fair_value": 1354.61109, "relative_strength": -9.220062, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.135038, "energy": 34.719551, "activity_lines": [ 722.486666, 805.202182, 810.980905, 793.181333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 656.75, "volume": 1968, "typical_volume": 5414.45, "trend": 764.517999, "fair_value": 1343.564423, "relative_strength": -8.819597, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.304278, "energy": 37.715869, "activity_lines": [ 692.25, 762.988545, 798.822905, 786.360344 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 719.0, "volume": 5655, "typical_volume": 5592.85, "trend": 767.717999, "fair_value": 1333.49391, "relative_strength": -0.242902, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.608397, "energy": 37.012104, "activity_lines": [ 694.146667, 740.152182, 793.207667, 783.423699 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }