{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3c50f4cd-a899-4ed4-9e0c-84c61e9971ef", "symbol": "LPL", "name": "LG Display Co Ltd", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.433, "architecture_energy": 72.404, "architecture_maturity": 21.228, "architecture_confidence": 86.284, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.3, "rotation_up": 9.5, "upward_expansion": 16.39, "deceleration": 37.51, "rotation_down": 74.93, "downward_expansion": 92.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.22, 3.491636, 3.977905, 4.09714 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 3.3, "trend_reference": 4.205667, "distance_from_trend": -0.215344, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.075833, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.19035, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -32.854898, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.166667, "excess_performance": -0.292292, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.215344, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038632, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.19035, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.229103, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.328549, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.259915, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.166667, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.482686, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15277717, "relative_activity": 1.215534, "balance": 0.482686, "dry_up": 1.455542, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.196949, "annualized_volatility": 0.746523, "from_high_reference": -0.433962, "from_low_reference": 0.195652 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.205667, "fair_value_reference": 4.075833, "structural_low": 2.76, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.014628, "positive_rate": 0.470588, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": -0.015012, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.310734, "worst_return": -0.277876, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.029279, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.051254, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.414013, "worst_return": -0.244819, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.079918, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.10273, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.423567, "worst_return": -0.40544, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.168718, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.236497, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.307018, "worst_return": -0.267425, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.115196, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.051213, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.073099, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.024691, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.052478, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.055928, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.068235, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.1225, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": 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"fair_value": 4.117051, "relative_strength": -31.659492, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -44.717644, "energy": 60.82749, "activity_lines": [ 3.625333, 4.072545, 4.296, 4.313419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.17, "volume": 14100370, "typical_volume": 11381393.15, "trend": 4.276333, "fair_value": 4.103205, "relative_strength": -33.410091, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.405371, "energy": 77.818671, "activity_lines": [ 3.410667, 3.848909, 4.187476, 4.239785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.0, "volume": 20178384, "typical_volume": 12105091.35, "trend": 4.234667, "fair_value": 4.088269, "relative_strength": -37.234704, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.941314, "energy": 78.698178, "activity_lines": [ 3.237333, 3.624364, 4.066286, 4.157441 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.3, "volume": 15277717, "typical_volume": 12568729.2, "trend": 4.205667, "fair_value": 4.075833, "relative_strength": -32.854898, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.432634, "energy": 72.404325, "activity_lines": [ 3.22, 3.491636, 3.977905, 4.09714 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }