{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3c5c9540-145d-4a93-8214-77d9305c20a9", "symbol": "CITE", "name": "UBS Solactive China Technology UCITS ETF hEUR acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -37.798, "architecture_energy": 25.869, "architecture_maturity": 83.526, "architecture_confidence": 90.683, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.62, "rotation_up": 28.11, "upward_expansion": 17.1, "deceleration": 42.96, "rotation_down": 36.06, "downward_expansion": 64.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.8392, 5.793382, 5.901752, 5.992856 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 6.022, "trend_reference": 6.165167, "distance_from_trend": -0.023222, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.335644, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.128636, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.876061, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.074962, "excess_performance": -0.245853, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.023222, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052572, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.128636, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.087135, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.218761, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058787, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.074962, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.843524, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 86085, "relative_activity": 0.343744, "balance": 0.843524, "dry_up": 0.615201, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042358, "annualized_volatility": 0.240933, "from_high_reference": -0.269175, "from_low_reference": 0.103941 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.165167, "fair_value_reference": 5.335644, "structural_low": 5.455, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.023566, "positive_rate": 0.65, "directional_follow_through": 0.35, "median_excess_return": -0.009685, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.382034, "worst_return": -0.123988, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.009541, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.048971, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.318426, "worst_return": -0.079907, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.074121, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.161676, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.627741, "worst_return": -0.088765, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.051651, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.10932, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.081026, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.063444, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.133821, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", 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"relative_strength": -24.516026, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.167633, "energy": 46.889756, "activity_lines": [ 5.715667, 5.754745, 5.919924, 6.031387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.805, "volume": 127260, "typical_volume": 259328.6, "trend": 6.194433, "fair_value": 5.327968, "relative_strength": -22.930208, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.625807, "energy": 37.960111, "activity_lines": [ 5.7488, 5.751964, 5.89951, 6.003981 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.022, "volume": 86085, "typical_volume": 250433.2, "trend": 6.165167, "fair_value": 5.335644, "relative_strength": -21.876061, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.798416, "energy": 25.868771, "activity_lines": [ 5.8392, 5.793382, 5.901752, 5.992856 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }