{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3c631871-08fb-4d73-b6f3-a54333a21200", "symbol": "IR1", "name": "IRIS Metals Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -69.768, "architecture_energy": 62.451, "architecture_maturity": 75.638, "architecture_confidence": 91.486, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.33, "rotation_up": 26.41, "upward_expansion": 10.59, "deceleration": 49.6, "rotation_down": 54.64, "downward_expansion": 81.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.055933, 0.059455, 0.064938, 0.075951 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.053, "trend_reference": 0.0975, "distance_from_trend": -0.45641, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.410112, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.870767, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -65.519755, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.658065, "excess_performance": -0.72177, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.45641, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.369884, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.870767, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004457, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.655198, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.101766, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.658065, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.282758, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2354533, "relative_activity": 0.962289, "balance": 1.282758, "dry_up": 0.640062, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.194485, "annualized_volatility": 0.744469, "from_high_reference": -0.846377, "from_low_reference": 0.06 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0975, "fair_value_reference": 0.410112, "structural_low": 0.05, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.13212, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.151815, "regime_survival": 0.909091, "best_return": 1.121212, "worst_return": -0.448649, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.42029, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.448962, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 1.717391, "worst_return": -0.515789, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.318841, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.382478, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.315789, "worst_return": -0.627027, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-12-29", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.805405, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.39726, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.191489, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.209302, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.521053, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.875, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.072727, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.326087, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.04, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.518182, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.97, "volume": 2698639, "typical_volume": 1056573.1, "trend": 1.302, "fair_value": 0.96175, "relative_strength": 39.34121, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.892159, "energy": 57.778689, "activity_lines": [ 0.0644, 0.066036, 0.07379, 0.089723 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.066, "volume": 1375145, "typical_volume": 2403573.05, "trend": 0.112633, "fair_value": 0.440939, "relative_strength": -55.582676, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.67099, "energy": 53.677469, "activity_lines": [ 0.065133, 0.065873, 0.071967, 0.086447 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.056, "volume": 1130246, "typical_volume": 2372793.45, "trend": 0.108167, "fair_value": 0.432324, "relative_strength": -62.009762, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.933927, "energy": 55.366214, "activity_lines": [ 0.062333, 0.063964, 0.069519, 0.082794 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.052, "volume": 1404503, "typical_volume": 2374228.85, "trend": 0.1029, "fair_value": 0.422721, "relative_strength": -65.25234, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.46825, "energy": 60.919241, "activity_lines": [ 0.058867, 0.061473, 0.067043, 0.07917 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.053, "volume": 2354533, "typical_volume": 2446804.65, "trend": 0.0975, "fair_value": 0.410112, "relative_strength": -65.519755, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.768242, "energy": 62.451436, "activity_lines": [ 0.055933, 0.059455, 0.064938, 0.075951 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }