{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3c65f525-9c9e-4648-bae0-ba9ce4c954e3", "symbol": "IBID", "name": "ISHARES TRUST IBONDS OCT 2027 TERM TIPS ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 49.333, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -31.321, "architecture_energy": 21.471, "architecture_maturity": 44.916, "architecture_confidence": 62.333, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.77, "rotation_up": 30.47, "upward_expansion": 19.1, "deceleration": 40.18, "rotation_down": 19.98, "downward_expansion": 53.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.717333, 25.696176, 25.712624, 25.761879 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 25.72, "trend_reference": 25.802541, "distance_from_trend": -0.003199, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.602535, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.045421, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.09382, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.004035, "excess_performance": -0.12966, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.003199, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000118, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.045421, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000916, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.110938, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003263, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.004035, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.321603, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 177763, "relative_activity": 1.189742, "balance": 1.321603, "dry_up": 1.035863, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.003397, "annualized_volatility": 0.03368, "from_high_reference": -0.017766, "from_low_reference": 0.010933 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.802541, "fair_value_reference": 24.602535, "structural_low": 25.527891, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.005035, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.0086, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.005035, "worst_return": 0.005035, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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25.772993 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.715, "volume": 155237, "typical_volume": 144443.45, "trend": 25.803521, "fair_value": 24.595134, "relative_strength": -8.325553, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.810777, "energy": 22.795361, "activity_lines": [ 25.711333, 25.689789, 25.719288, 25.767268 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.72, "volume": 177763, "typical_volume": 149413.1, "trend": 25.802541, "fair_value": 24.602535, "relative_strength": -11.09382, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.321017, "energy": 21.471244, "activity_lines": [ 25.717333, 25.696176, 25.712624, 25.761879 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }