{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3c6d3149-a4eb-4887-9ec6-fbda0f273aa7", "symbol": "FMNL", "name": "Future Market Networks Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 68.728, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 2.869, "architecture_energy": 16.63, "architecture_maturity": 47.093, "architecture_confidence": 81.411, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.42, "rotation_up": 15.23, "upward_expansion": 41.01, "deceleration": 85.24, "rotation_down": 45.28, "downward_expansion": 37.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.427333, 9.789818, 9.922429, 9.587785 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 9.35, "trend_reference": 9.146667, "distance_from_trend": 0.02223, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.910192, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.143003, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.907405, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.16875, "excess_performance": 0.212459, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.02223, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013706, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.143003, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.092743, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.049074, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030342, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.16875, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.615563, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 117249, "relative_activity": 0.43739, "balance": 1.615563, "dry_up": 0.447617, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.115261, "annualized_volatility": 0.384102, "from_high_reference": -0.348432, "from_low_reference": 0.38724 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.146667, "fair_value_reference": 10.910192, "structural_low": 6.74, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.014766, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.027945, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.098214, "worst_return": -0.173845, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.12782, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.119227, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.436975, "worst_return": -0.350637, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.117647, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.022515, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.264, "worst_return": -0.363369, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.128659, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.048597, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.865546, "worst_return": -0.608227, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-05-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.072, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.011511, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.273455, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.325106, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.266405, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.040444, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.349925, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.181875, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.29108, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.141217, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011583, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010582, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 5.7, "volume": 983872, "typical_volume": 436993.05, "trend": 4.895, "fair_value": 9.900641, "relative_strength": 6.629954, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.683497, 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"volume": 168745, "typical_volume": 297954.1, "trend": 9.091333, "fair_value": 10.853974, "relative_strength": -4.679794, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.811851, "energy": 16.232748, "activity_lines": [ 9.765333, 10.088727, 9.942286, 9.547978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.47, "volume": 98759, "typical_volume": 277268.0, "trend": 9.111667, "fair_value": 10.882628, "relative_strength": -3.656754, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.703355, "energy": 15.271527, "activity_lines": [ 9.566, 9.938545, 9.941333, 9.572409 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.35, "volume": 117249, "typical_volume": 268065.25, "trend": 9.146667, "fair_value": 10.910192, "relative_strength": -4.907405, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.868619, "energy": 16.629603, "activity_lines": [ 9.427333, 9.789818, 9.922429, 9.587785 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }