{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3c7bd76f-412d-4a69-86d6-990e154cf1b1", "symbol": "GODFRYPHLP", "name": "Godfrey Phillips India Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 81.804, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 21.938, "architecture_energy": 14.254, "architecture_maturity": 9.75, "architecture_confidence": 76.696, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.29, "rotation_up": 28.31, "upward_expansion": 37.78, "deceleration": 74.63, "rotation_down": 33.63, "downward_expansion": 40.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 2179.16665, 2182.423642, 2213.368584, 2192.771406 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2286.0, "trend_reference": 2170.733342, "distance_from_trend": 0.0531, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1911.634299, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.195835, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.749495, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.044647, "excess_performance": 0.088356, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.0531, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.075284, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.195835, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.171579, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.097495, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021048, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.044647, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.378182, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4845138, "relative_activity": 1.390482, "balance": 1.378182, "dry_up": 0.921878, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056562, "annualized_volatility": 0.445106, "from_high_reference": -0.417559, "from_low_reference": 0.247749 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2170.733342, "fair_value_reference": 1911.634299, "structural_low": 1832.099976, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.011655, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.01649, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.148758, "worst_return": -0.202501, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.248075, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.226859, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.308173, "worst_return": -0.138633, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.19066, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.133313, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.703715, "worst_return": -0.198359, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.185862, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.200782, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.04598, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.03804, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.229763, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", 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"mixed", "direction": -17.875579, "energy": 32.578166, "activity_lines": [ 2127.719987, 2166.432737, 2203.347632, 2184.890977 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2286.0, "volume": 4845138, "typical_volume": 3484503.25, "trend": 2170.733342, "fair_value": 1911.634299, "relative_strength": -9.749495, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.937593, "energy": 14.253863, "activity_lines": [ 2179.16665, 2182.423642, 2213.368584, 2192.771406 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }