{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3c7d2a71-c2cb-41e5-b40b-c311366f1f80", "symbol": "TILV", "name": "TD Q International Low Volatility ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 87.773, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.512, "architecture_energy": 92.141, "architecture_maturity": 16.562, "architecture_confidence": 69.695, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.8, "rotation_up": 85.96, "upward_expansion": 99.83, "deceleration": 39.05, "rotation_down": 8.68, "downward_expansion": 21.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.568667, 21.303181, 20.967587, 20.81563 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 21.790001, "trend_reference": 20.614397, "distance_from_trend": 0.057028, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.008703, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.281109, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.53171, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.064349, "excess_performance": -0.056072, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.057028, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033329, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.281109, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046949, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.025317, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036778, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.064349, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 7.044625, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19500, "relative_activity": 0.386713, "balance": 7.044625, "dry_up": 0.839365, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015723, "annualized_volatility": 0.126266, "from_high_reference": -0.006157, "from_low_reference": 0.190862 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.614397, "fair_value_reference": 17.008703, "structural_low": 19.7276, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 42, "median_return": 0.003915, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.004928, "regime_survival": 0.809524, "best_return": 0.072219, "worst_return": -0.044792, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.035166, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.014209, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.092223, "worst_return": -0.04047, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.07274, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.001583, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.108889, "worst_return": -0.099029, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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63160.0, "trend": 20.453075, "fair_value": 16.903019, "relative_strength": -2.019371, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.044566, "energy": 82.296638, "activity_lines": [ 21.186334, 20.979708, 20.752665, 20.65198 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.74, "volume": 48200, "typical_volume": 52860.0, "trend": 20.540353, "fair_value": 16.956025, "relative_strength": 0.241112, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.577704, "energy": 89.387731, "activity_lines": [ 21.401334, 21.146665, 20.86159, 20.735008 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.790001, "volume": 19500, "typical_volume": 50425.0, "trend": 20.614397, "fair_value": 17.008703, "relative_strength": -2.53171, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.511677, "energy": 92.141407, "activity_lines": [ 21.568667, 21.303181, 20.967587, 20.81563 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }