{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3c8a9b9a-95f1-4011-b3c9-843b0a837d00", "symbol": "EXS", "name": "Exsitec Holding AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 87.857, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -19.258, "architecture_energy": 11.827, "architecture_maturity": 21.582, "architecture_confidence": 59.279, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.2, "rotation_up": 30.36, "upward_expansion": 19.18, "deceleration": 42.95, "rotation_down": 21.21, "downward_expansion": 53.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 105.733333, 104.154545, 104.901645, 106.492244 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 109.0, "trend_reference": 111.298664, "distance_from_trend": -0.020653, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 138.360741, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.212204, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -23.805847, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.150531, "excess_performance": -0.212025, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.020653, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.124163, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.212204, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064676, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.238058, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060842, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.150531, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.41963, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 27436, "relative_activity": 0.912892, "balance": 1.41963, "dry_up": 0.957719, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.063514, "annualized_volatility": 0.385386, "from_high_reference": -0.321983, "from_low_reference": 0.133056 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 111.298664, "fair_value_reference": 138.360741, "structural_low": 96.199997, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.002538, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.026409, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.258035, "worst_return": -0.158501, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.003077, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.023481, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.208333, "worst_return": -0.151429, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.026503, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.037388, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.316667, "worst_return": -0.181307, "sufficient": false }, { 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27137.8, "trend": 120.864451, "fair_value": 139.934314, "relative_strength": -30.895022, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.623032, "energy": 52.299424, "activity_lines": [ 102.633333, 104.683636, 106.202731, 111.351394 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 100.0, "volume": 16725, "typical_volume": 26332.4, "trend": 119.019282, "fair_value": 139.637657, "relative_strength": -31.556841, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.380055, "energy": 54.356605, "activity_lines": [ 101.166667, 103.572727, 105.424949, 110.005301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 104.0, "volume": 54851, "typical_volume": 28208.15, "trend": 117.48771, "fair_value": 139.351268, "relative_strength": -26.640636, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.331074, "energy": 40.643956, "activity_lines": [ 101.933333, 103.4, 105.120814, 109.036315 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 103.0, "volume": 15365, "typical_volume": 28141.65, "trend": 115.89003, "fair_value": 139.076916, "relative_strength": -26.009337, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.535689, "energy": 37.343834, "activity_lines": [ 102.233333, 103.209091, 104.778702, 108.101624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 105.0, "volume": 33436, "typical_volume": 29056.85, "trend": 114.309854, "fair_value": 138.839979, "relative_strength": -25.225678, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.204947, "energy": 28.365703, "activity_lines": [ 103.2, 103.372727, 104.698452, 107.399041 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 104.0, "volume": 38896, "typical_volume": 29770.75, "trend": 112.745507, "fair_value": 138.584334, "relative_strength": -26.416503, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.571447, "energy": 18.543976, "activity_lines": [ 103.8, 103.209091, 104.554393, 106.733889 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 109.0, "volume": 27436, "typical_volume": 30053.95, "trend": 111.298664, "fair_value": 138.360741, "relative_strength": -23.805847, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.257626, "energy": 11.826918, "activity_lines": [ 105.733333, 104.154545, 104.901645, 106.492244 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }