{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3c921112-2db9-4d49-b06d-a904132a4595", "symbol": "603016", "name": "Wuxi New Hongtai Electrical Technology Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.496, "architecture_energy": 85.973, "architecture_maturity": 30.914, "architecture_confidence": 89.25, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.19, "rotation_up": 9.76, "upward_expansion": 21.74, "deceleration": 37.09, "rotation_down": 78.07, "downward_expansion": 97.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.02, 30.103135, 36.159875, 37.67053 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 28.950001, "trend_reference": 37.913609, "distance_from_trend": -0.236422, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 26.655584, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.086076, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.280448, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.072413, "excess_performance": -0.029209, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.236422, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048837, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.086076, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.008703, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.122804, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.666795, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.072413, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.307075, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10364720, "relative_activity": 0.505367, "balance": 0.307075, "dry_up": 0.621526, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.138784, "annualized_volatility": 0.644149, "from_high_reference": -0.523854, "from_low_reference": 0.200747 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 37.913609, "fair_value_reference": 26.655584, "structural_low": 24.110001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.033423, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.005481, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.063102, "worst_return": -0.205165, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.058822, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.028298, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.137419, "worst_return": -0.009718, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.119018, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.084427, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.336034, "worst_return": -0.153547, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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73.755982, "activity_lines": [ 31.254666, 34.545545, 39.975707, 39.674239 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.57, "volume": 17133904, "typical_volume": 21106832.95, "trend": 37.999609, "fair_value": 26.575305, "relative_strength": -17.030662, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -55.00468, "energy": 80.707335, "activity_lines": [ 29.225333, 32.443645, 38.574049, 38.935834 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.389999, "volume": 10217541, "typical_volume": 21134320.95, "trend": 37.952609, "fair_value": 26.606687, "relative_strength": -14.721295, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -46.686807, "energy": 79.42041, "activity_lines": [ 28.168666, 30.942781, 37.281867, 38.251343 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.950001, "volume": 10364720, "typical_volume": 20509312.75, "trend": 37.913609, "fair_value": 26.655584, "relative_strength": -12.280448, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.495603, "energy": 85.973459, "activity_lines": [ 28.02, 30.103135, 36.159875, 37.67053 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }