{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3c94f5a6-8840-4712-8a4c-64cba88ab446", "symbol": "JCTD", "name": "iShares MSCI Japan Climate Transition Aware UCITS ETF USD Inc", "exchange": "AMS", "country": "NL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AEX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 76.423, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 85.215, "architecture_energy": 61.361, "architecture_maturity": 50.685, "architecture_confidence": 50.686, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.49, "rotation_up": 49.94, "upward_expansion": 73.81, "deceleration": 72.71, "rotation_down": 28.21, "downward_expansion": 14.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.140667, 7.1354, 7.045419, 6.994664 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 7.268, "trend_reference": 6.901785, "distance_from_trend": 0.053061, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.790686, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.255119, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.762438, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.052876, "excess_performance": -0.063787, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.053061, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041064, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.255119, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021532, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.007624, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066613, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.052876, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.29249, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 638, "relative_activity": 2.505892, "balance": 1.29249, "dry_up": 0.626473, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.011364, "annualized_volatility": 0.112658, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.304047 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.901785, "fair_value_reference": 5.790686, "structural_low": 6.656325, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.035201, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.085719, "worst_return": -0.023593, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.067849, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.008588, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.085719, "worst_return": 0.049978, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.139981, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.020519, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.139981, "worst_return": 0.139981, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.139797, "energy": 52.522292, "activity_lines": [ 7.1112, 7.087509, 7.005006, 6.954272 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.077, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 222.7, "trend": 6.871452, "fair_value": 5.777256, "relative_strength": -2.208213, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.19055, "energy": 37.175873, "activity_lines": [ 7.0884, 7.096364, 7.016531, 6.96908 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.268, "volume": 638, "typical_volume": 254.6, "trend": 6.901785, "fair_value": 5.790686, "relative_strength": -0.762438, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.215195, "energy": 61.360891, "activity_lines": [ 7.140667, 7.1354, 7.045419, 6.994664 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }