{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3ca19b5a-9f83-4107-93d5-f96a656e84e7", "symbol": "603716", "name": "Thalys Medical Technology Group Corporation", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.162, "architecture_energy": 33.431, "architecture_maturity": 86.202, "architecture_confidence": 86.934, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.62, "rotation_up": 27.39, "upward_expansion": 17.38, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 36.38, "downward_expansion": 67.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.944, 15.483455, 16.766667, 18.153742 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 18.0, "trend_reference": 20.062, "distance_from_trend": -0.102781, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.019744, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.283904, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.864652, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.186257, "excess_performance": -0.143053, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.102781, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.099605, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.283904, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.326497, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.188647, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068317, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.186257, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.105361, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 164078137, "relative_activity": 2.304688, "balance": 1.105361, "dry_up": 1.908455, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.117692, "annualized_volatility": 0.535361, "from_high_reference": -0.527807, "from_low_reference": 0.393189 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.062, "fair_value_reference": 14.019744, "structural_low": 12.92, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.017397, "positive_rate": 0.407407, "directional_follow_through": 0.592593, "median_excess_return": 0.011425, "regime_survival": 0.814815, "best_return": 0.570811, "worst_return": -0.236842, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.091542, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": 0.047484, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.343701, "worst_return": -0.236322, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.009416, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.012822, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.383738, "worst_return": -0.302142, "sufficient": true }, { 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"2026-07-24", "close": 13.58, "volume": 127393954, "typical_volume": 66919597.85, "trend": 20.333333, "fair_value": 13.921282, "relative_strength": -38.639349, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.388393, "energy": 67.668318, "activity_lines": [ 14.423333, 14.956727, 17.097095, 18.578925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.89, "volume": 140056178, "typical_volume": 66882327.35, "trend": 20.147, "fair_value": 13.963846, "relative_strength": -27.44819, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.577501, "energy": 54.504424, "activity_lines": [ 14.882, 14.994545, 16.811381, 18.292258 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.0, "volume": 164078137, "typical_volume": 71193197.0, "trend": 20.062, "fair_value": 14.019744, "relative_strength": -18.864652, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.162278, "energy": 33.430874, "activity_lines": [ 15.944, 15.483455, 16.766667, 18.153742 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }