{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3ca7ea25-f297-4cd3-9d2b-1fced3cd2d2b", "symbol": "300861", "name": "Yangling Metron New Material Inc.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 59.553, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -21.441, "architecture_energy": 37.272, "architecture_maturity": 46.936, "architecture_confidence": 56.295, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.39, "rotation_up": 16.71, "upward_expansion": 19.45, "deceleration": 68.26, "rotation_down": 66.08, "downward_expansion": 42.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.655333, 18.56265, 19.213616, 18.921834 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 17.33, "trend_reference": 18.469512, "distance_from_trend": -0.061697, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.532823, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.011568, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.16176, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.024232, "excess_performance": 0.016832, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.061697, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.077379, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.011568, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.116159, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.031618, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073637, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.024232, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.855507, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 84188417, "relative_activity": 1.08287, "balance": 0.855507, "dry_up": 1.355336, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.15722, "annualized_volatility": 0.702557, "from_high_reference": -0.314289, "from_low_reference": 0.246763 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.469512, "fair_value_reference": 17.532823, "structural_low": 14.27, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.056877, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.014546, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.008044, "worst_return": -0.159046, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.049271, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.028878, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.224619, "worst_return": -0.225501, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.100823, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.00605, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.255711, "worst_return": -0.275358, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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16.139999, "volume": 150901684, "typical_volume": 74096830.45, "trend": 18.337178, "fair_value": 17.800684, "relative_strength": -6.497166, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.453055, "energy": 16.946188, "activity_lines": [ 20.634346, 20.823851, 20.041263, 19.354406 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.25, "volume": 104672932, "typical_volume": 75190473.65, "trend": 18.358178, "fair_value": 17.714299, "relative_strength": -11.815643, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": -1.777347, "energy": 17.48497, "activity_lines": [ 18.428576, 19.810845, 19.671286, 19.155233 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.8, "volume": 81722528, "typical_volume": 76300952.95, "trend": 18.389512, "fair_value": 17.614675, "relative_strength": -7.104704, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.996772, "energy": 37.984663, "activity_lines": [ 16.997637, 18.994929, 19.36526, 18.990189 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.33, "volume": 84188417, "typical_volume": 77745610.8, "trend": 18.469512, "fair_value": 17.532823, "relative_strength": -3.16176, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.441109, "energy": 37.272029, "activity_lines": [ 16.655333, 18.56265, 19.213616, 18.921834 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }