{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3ca832a2-6767-4625-8bc9-b9c07e3a8d66", "symbol": "SOGP", "name": "Sound Group Inc.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 64.455, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -40.182, "architecture_energy": 24.817, "architecture_maturity": 36.108, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.61, "rotation_up": 29.2, "upward_expansion": 17.95, "deceleration": 40.37, "rotation_down": 32.89, "downward_expansion": 65.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.6378, 11.303036, 12.14189, 12.605396 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 12.625, "trend_reference": 12.953794, "distance_from_trend": -0.025382, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.012749, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.099705, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.493899, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.017854, "excess_performance": -0.205308, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.025382, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009617, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.099705, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.577173, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.164939, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.33667, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.017854, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.358981, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 34817, "relative_activity": 0.185553, "balance": 0.358981, "dry_up": 0.258221, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.109991, "annualized_volatility": 0.560335, "from_high_reference": -0.61329, "from_low_reference": 3.471339 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.953794, "fair_value_reference": 6.012749, "structural_low": 9.8, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.037182, "positive_rate": 0.382353, "directional_follow_through": 0.588235, "median_excess_return": -0.044723, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 2.463551, "worst_return": -0.476196, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.045513, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.080354, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 8.65767, "worst_return": -0.564103, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.254365, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.345721, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 10.201501, "worst_return": -0.717256, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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5.877855, "relative_strength": -27.124817, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -45.45085, "energy": 61.946655, "activity_lines": [ 11.188, 12.084436, 13.108111, 13.170466 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 10.1, "volume": 91449, "typical_volume": 198463.55, "trend": 12.956553, "fair_value": 5.899442, "relative_strength": -31.240541, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -46.069171, "energy": 63.83334, "activity_lines": [ 10.740667, 11.573273, 12.789374, 12.981743 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.091, "volume": 36170, "typical_volume": 194522.55, "trend": 12.882663, "fair_value": 5.919558, "relative_strength": -28.760729, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.606909, "energy": 74.813148, "activity_lines": [ 10.445, 11.152273, 12.484882, 12.796869 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.0, "volume": 45629, "typical_volume": 192966.5, "trend": 12.855755, "fair_value": 5.941631, "relative_strength": -21.678076, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.28171, "energy": 68.448165, "activity_lines": [ 10.5256, 10.987618, 12.279857, 12.675407 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.04, "volume": 77193, "typical_volume": 192206.7, "trend": 12.894406, "fair_value": 5.97277, "relative_strength": -15.525556, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.470054, "energy": 48.297739, "activity_lines": [ 11.009533, 11.081964, 12.182225, 12.622777 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.625, "volume": 34817, "typical_volume": 187638.95, "trend": 12.953794, "fair_value": 6.012749, "relative_strength": -16.493899, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.182484, "energy": 24.817179, "activity_lines": [ 11.6378, 11.303036, 12.14189, 12.605396 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }