{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3ca997e0-8890-405d-948e-da02d52140ae", "symbol": "IWG", "name": "International Workplace Group plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -4.489, "architecture_energy": 15.03, "architecture_maturity": 15.528, "architecture_confidence": 61.417, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.11, "rotation_up": 39.1, "upward_expansion": 35.01, "deceleration": 36.24, "rotation_down": 17.39, "downward_expansion": 41.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 194.24, 192.036364, 189.471879, 190.927784 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 189.6, "trend_reference": 198.489433, "distance_from_trend": -0.044785, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 187.762806, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.009785, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.333352, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.171298, "excess_performance": -0.222533, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.044785, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058548, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.009785, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008147, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.163334, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008923, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.171298, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.588529, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9890754, "relative_activity": 0.686994, "balance": 0.588529, "dry_up": 0.896574, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054568, "annualized_volatility": 0.339472, "from_high_reference": -0.243387, "from_low_reference": 0.159676 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 198.489433, "fair_value_reference": 187.762806, "structural_low": 163.493883, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.016854, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.026911, "regime_survival": 0.307692, "best_return": 0.230389, "worst_return": -0.090849, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.040631, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.06503, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.16859, "worst_return": -0.156842, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.013843, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.028518, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.239506, "worst_return": -0.209019, "sufficient": true }, { 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.059177, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.145789, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.026923, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.152107, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.068761, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", 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187.302861, "relative_strength": -11.648598, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 7.893595, "energy": 20.085915, "activity_lines": [ 194.22, 190.321818, 188.117171, 191.867224 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 197.1, "volume": 16694646, "typical_volume": 15371239.2, "trend": 200.142468, "fair_value": 187.604941, "relative_strength": -13.38676, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 1.461015, "energy": 19.499371, "activity_lines": [ 195.853333, 191.967273, 189.175018, 191.607943 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 189.6, "volume": 9890754, "typical_volume": 14397152.5, "trend": 198.489433, "fair_value": 187.762806, "relative_strength": -16.333352, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.489242, "energy": 15.029625, "activity_lines": [ 194.24, 192.036364, 189.471879, 190.927784 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }