{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3cb29e16-c439-499a-b7bc-c369c272695a", "symbol": "SP5Y", "name": "Leverage Shares 5x Long S&P 500 ETP Securities", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 74.037, "architecture_energy": 41.219, "architecture_maturity": 58.384, "architecture_confidence": 62.361, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.24, "rotation_up": 42.33, "upward_expansion": 69.03, "deceleration": 72.44, "rotation_down": 26.54, "downward_expansion": 9.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.0928, 5.024805, 4.953289, 4.653755 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 5.7175, "trend_reference": 4.339967, "distance_from_trend": 0.317406, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.142562, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.819375, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 28.627304, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.458918, "excess_performance": 0.407683, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.317406, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.092532, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.819375, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.07078, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.286273, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042748, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.458918, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.858484, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 211545, "relative_activity": 2.137136, "balance": 0.858484, "dry_up": 1.871732, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.086159, "annualized_volatility": 0.644395, "from_high_reference": -0.019717, "from_low_reference": 1.287 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.339967, "fair_value_reference": 3.142562, "structural_low": 2.5, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.09534, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.092642, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.187604, "worst_return": -0.131588, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.180533, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.161378, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.278076, "worst_return": 0.082989, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.666734, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.634986, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.722428, "worst_return": 0.61104, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 1.332601, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 1.197807, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.332601, "worst_return": 1.332601, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-01-05", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.191411, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.195644, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.441721, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.164875, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.019341, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.066129, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.22875, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.082866, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.114819, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.245982, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.641779, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.112725, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.116429, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.142929, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.38017, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.0, "trend": 1.2838, "fair_value": 1.865132, "relative_strength": 19.434375, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.000629, 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"deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.934923, "energy": 35.845034, "activity_lines": [ 5.002167, 5.067605, 4.726623, 4.460803 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.8915, "volume": 130153, "typical_volume": 89434.4, "trend": 4.2456, "fair_value": 3.077097, "relative_strength": 15.083647, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.912762, "energy": 30.586667, "activity_lines": [ 4.974017, 5.03005, 4.781606, 4.504544 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.7585, "volume": 181689, "typical_volume": 86874.95, "trend": 4.26635, "fair_value": 3.096181, "relative_strength": 10.113519, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.433766, "energy": 29.103247, "activity_lines": [ 4.9057, 4.969777, 4.81863, 4.537634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.639, "volume": 217709, "typical_volume": 89385.1, "trend": 4.290267, "fair_value": 3.115815, "relative_strength": 5.515714, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.420442, "energy": 21.153131, "activity_lines": [ 4.819067, 4.893555, 4.838077, 4.561676 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.7175, "volume": 211545, "typical_volume": 98985.3, "trend": 4.339967, "fair_value": 3.142562, "relative_strength": 28.627304, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.037441, "energy": 41.218919, "activity_lines": [ 5.0928, 5.024805, 4.953289, 4.653755 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }