{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3cba1e7b-6b8e-418d-84c9-6f143ab2dc46", "symbol": "TAEE4", "name": "Transmissora Alian\u00e7a de Energia El\u00e9trica S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 71.11, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -41.757, "architecture_energy": 19.444, "architecture_maturity": 18.734, "architecture_confidence": 64.455, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.52, "rotation_up": 25.06, "upward_expansion": 18.79, "deceleration": 52.09, "rotation_down": 40.45, "downward_expansion": 59.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.492, 13.536182, 13.526994, 13.604917 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 13.23, "trend_reference": 13.664836, "distance_from_trend": -0.031822, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.980204, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.204896, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.103943, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.013679, "excess_performance": 0.04337, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.031822, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000267, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.204896, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.078833, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.021039, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031652, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.013679, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.572552, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1366200, "relative_activity": 1.76604, "balance": 0.572552, "dry_up": 1.235466, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036223, "annualized_volatility": 0.185087, "from_high_reference": -0.115558, "from_low_reference": 0.296877 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.664836, "fair_value_reference": 10.980204, "structural_low": 12.74, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.00237, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.009361, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.049751, "worst_return": -0.094192, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.010735, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.032057, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.227197, "worst_return": -0.048605, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.016448, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.017559, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.132894, "worst_return": -0.052681, 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0.050132, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.013535, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.030406, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.222156, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.034629, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.078877, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", 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13.621399 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 13.33, "volume": 109300, "typical_volume": 748630.0, "trend": 13.605633, "fair_value": 10.816477, "relative_strength": -1.654708, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.216635, "energy": 33.212389, "activity_lines": [ 13.249333, 13.266167, 13.542901, 13.602149 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 13.83, "volume": 161100, "typical_volume": 727155.0, "trend": 13.622414, "fair_value": 10.843496, "relative_strength": 1.395181, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.332488, "energy": 14.198496, "activity_lines": [ 13.454, 13.341031, 13.553187, 13.616624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 13.96, "volume": 881700, "typical_volume": 749430.0, "trend": 13.640953, "fair_value": 10.873125, "relative_strength": 0.236952, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 7.641071, "energy": 14.093743, "activity_lines": [ 13.660667, 13.449165, 13.577321, 13.638404 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.77, "volume": 581300, "typical_volume": 746160.0, "trend": 13.656056, "fair_value": 10.900846, "relative_strength": 1.19585, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 2.513341, "energy": 15.950613, "activity_lines": [ 13.738667, 13.525091, 13.585676, 13.646729 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.67, "volume": 764700, "typical_volume": 746155.0, "trend": 13.664929, "fair_value": 10.928665, "relative_strength": 0.234176, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 3.152646, "energy": 17.32925, "activity_lines": [ 13.753333, 13.581273, 13.586766, 13.647629 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.43, "volume": 1110800, "typical_volume": 764835.0, "trend": 13.65711, "fair_value": 10.954305, "relative_strength": -3.665898, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 0.155337, "energy": 9.153995, "activity_lines": [ 13.659333, 13.580545, 13.565799, 13.632472 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.23, "volume": 1366200, "typical_volume": 773595.0, "trend": 13.664836, "fair_value": 10.980204, "relative_strength": -2.103943, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.757234, "energy": 19.444024, "activity_lines": [ 13.492, 13.536182, 13.526994, 13.604917 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }