{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3cc1d5bc-cd30-4bac-894c-90bb9b390317", "symbol": "PRT", "name": "PermRock Royalty Trust", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.038, "architecture_energy": 36.822, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 93.356, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.23, "rotation_up": 28.86, "upward_expansion": 15.07, "deceleration": 40.52, "rotation_down": 38.35, "downward_expansion": 68.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.210753, 2.212097, 2.289545, 2.49965 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.23, "trend_reference": 2.771504, "distance_from_trend": -0.195383, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.525774, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.367515, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -37.488848, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.366468, "excess_performance": -0.492093, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.195383, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.135207, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.367515, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07442, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.374888, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026871, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.366468, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.929385, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 133365, "relative_activity": 0.464973, "balance": 0.929385, "dry_up": 0.568741, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.116493, "annualized_volatility": 0.472181, "from_high_reference": -0.436565, "from_low_reference": 0.243596 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.771504, "fair_value_reference": 3.525774, "structural_low": 1.793187, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.007302, "positive_rate": 0.56, "directional_follow_through": 0.44, "median_excess_return": 0.010656, "regime_survival": 0.84, "best_return": 0.242337, "worst_return": -0.275672, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.042789, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.086585, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.130556, "worst_return": -0.327841, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.077648, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.228199, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": -0.023773, "worst_return": -0.240086, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"2026-07-10", "close": 2.108065, "volume": 181484, "typical_volume": 305233.9, "trend": 2.878523, "fair_value": 3.59286, "relative_strength": -42.506984, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.058299, "energy": 48.048383, "activity_lines": [ 2.20288, 2.184403, 2.439416, 2.653628 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.315903, "volume": 240973, "typical_volume": 309447.0, "trend": 2.830213, "fair_value": 3.577606, "relative_strength": -35.065127, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.93917, "energy": 40.807994, "activity_lines": [ 2.244739, 2.199711, 2.402398, 2.61733 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.197139, "volume": 114578, "typical_volume": 298230.05, "trend": 2.805799, "fair_value": 3.56025, "relative_strength": -37.245767, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.426937, "energy": 38.863985, "activity_lines": [ 2.227449, 2.19879, 2.358692, 2.576487 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.17, "volume": 163597, "typical_volume": 295811.5, "trend": 2.785179, "fair_value": 3.542469, "relative_strength": -37.860352, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.396035, "energy": 39.956464, "activity_lines": [ 2.207227, 2.200638, 2.318281, 2.535468 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.23, "volume": 133365, "typical_volume": 286823.25, "trend": 2.771504, "fair_value": 3.525774, "relative_strength": -37.488848, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.03774, "energy": 36.822454, "activity_lines": [ 2.210753, 2.212097, 2.289545, 2.49965 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }