{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3cc76b4f-48ac-472c-8c6f-68d7f65eab59", "symbol": "MCP", "name": "McPherson's Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 85.538, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 6.152, "architecture_energy": 16.796, "architecture_maturity": 31.463, "architecture_confidence": 49.139, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.37, "rotation_up": 36.38, "upward_expansion": 27.25, "deceleration": 49.92, "rotation_down": 14.26, "downward_expansion": 46.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.152333, 0.147364, 0.143774, 0.150349 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.16, "trend_reference": 0.163167, "distance_from_trend": -0.019408, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.33222, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.518391, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -24.287425, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.157895, "excess_performance": -0.2216, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.019408, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.155671, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.518391, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.097964, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.242874, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.170724, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.157895, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.527231, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 978900, "relative_activity": 1.205338, "balance": 0.527231, "dry_up": 0.661245, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.074519, "annualized_volatility": 0.533768, "from_high_reference": -0.507692, "from_low_reference": 0.391304 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.163167, "fair_value_reference": 0.33222, "structural_low": 0.115, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.038732, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.272727, "median_excess_return": -0.021552, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.12069, "worst_return": -0.115208, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.132075, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.117575, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": -0.086207, "worst_return": -0.159443, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.197604, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.223331, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.081395, "worst_return": -0.223741, "sufficient": false }, { 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"2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.016129, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.039216, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.06, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.318182, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.468584, "volume": 121043, "typical_volume": 429385.7, "trend": 0.52353, "fair_value": 0.919194, "relative_strength": -19.58738, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": 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"relative_strength": -27.345414, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.341392, "energy": 24.534246, "activity_lines": [ 0.146167, 0.141273, 0.142583, 0.151952 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.15, "volume": 707323, "typical_volume": 801369.5, "trend": 0.165833, "fair_value": 0.334258, "relative_strength": -27.87618, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.369891, "energy": 19.901354, "activity_lines": [ 0.148, 0.143591, 0.142631, 0.150726 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.16, "volume": 978900, "typical_volume": 812137.15, "trend": 0.163167, "fair_value": 0.33222, "relative_strength": -24.287425, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 6.151519, "energy": 16.796154, "activity_lines": [ 0.152333, 0.147364, 0.143774, 0.150349 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }