{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3cc9c94f-5670-458c-9fa3-e01c418d5a30", "symbol": "600577", "name": "Tongling Jingda Special Magnet Wire Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.589, "architecture_energy": 83.577, "architecture_maturity": 34.0, "architecture_confidence": 83.971, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.66, "rotation_up": 9.87, "upward_expansion": 20.27, "deceleration": 38.1, "rotation_down": 75.76, "downward_expansion": 93.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.774, 8.515091, 10.206495, 11.117726 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 8.26, "trend_reference": 12.285496, "distance_from_trend": -0.327662, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.238454, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.141128, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.096977, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.400554, "excess_performance": -0.35735, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.327662, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041377, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.141128, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.893508, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.26097, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.456915, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.400554, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.0099, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 348072592, "relative_activity": 1.303581, "balance": 1.0099, "dry_up": 1.348317, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.151984, "annualized_volatility": 0.586702, "from_high_reference": -0.494434, "from_low_reference": 0.229167 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.285496, "fair_value_reference": 7.238454, "structural_low": 6.72, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.005025, "positive_rate": 0.421053, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": 0.002785, "regime_survival": 0.789474, "best_return": 0.227882, "worst_return": -0.254984, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.010305, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.011197, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.509847, "worst_return": -0.384615, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.019282, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.007249, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.026959, "worst_return": -0.070863, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"activity_lines": [ 9.704667, 10.915636, 11.889269, 12.42369 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.19, "volume": 319069760, "typical_volume": 258577791.55, "trend": 12.69796, "fair_value": 7.16776, "relative_strength": -32.852424, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -91.93847, "energy": 96.477554, "activity_lines": [ 8.690667, 10.061818, 11.376239, 12.058749 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.1, "volume": 402480858, "typical_volume": 259844705.75, "trend": 12.575207, "fair_value": 7.187194, "relative_strength": -34.454165, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.499825, "energy": 93.885363, "activity_lines": [ 7.937333, 9.308909, 10.893506, 11.69759 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.75, "volume": 370448210, "typical_volume": 263902964.05, "trend": 12.422681, "fair_value": 7.210916, "relative_strength": -28.738682, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.242764, "energy": 87.913482, "activity_lines": [ 7.711333, 8.800909, 10.509036, 11.386286 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.26, "volume": 348072592, "typical_volume": 267012728.05, "trend": 12.285496, "fair_value": 7.238454, "relative_strength": -26.096977, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.589334, "energy": 83.57691, "activity_lines": [ 7.774, 8.515091, 10.206495, 11.117726 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }