{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3cdf82f0-78d2-40d3-8396-ad1ab2eb8a81", "symbol": "9136", "name": "Ju Teng International Holdings Limited", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 72.171, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 3.023, "architecture_energy": 18.799, "architecture_maturity": 47.37, "architecture_confidence": 78.063, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.21, "rotation_up": 15.45, "upward_expansion": 41.75, "deceleration": 85.56, "rotation_down": 43.13, "downward_expansion": 35.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.326667, 12.118182, 12.653, 12.056323 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 11.5, "trend_reference": 11.051667, "distance_from_trend": 0.040567, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.500962, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.533137, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.20128, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.556157, "excess_performance": 0.114785, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.040567, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.21358, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.533137, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.215073, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.072013, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.177628, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.556157, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.619492, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1214084, "relative_activity": 0.173104, "balance": 1.619492, "dry_up": 0.377713, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.193645, "annualized_volatility": 0.812628, "from_high_reference": -0.391534, "from_low_reference": 0.923077 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.051667, "fair_value_reference": 7.500962, "structural_low": 7.21, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.014107, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.024211, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.327052, "worst_return": -0.139332, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.014196, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.065927, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.971917, "worst_return": -0.206718, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.006202, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.090423, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.268258, "worst_return": -0.0323, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.162791, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.01634, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.012966, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.033647, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.012623, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.05648, "energy": 25.930781, "activity_lines": [ 13.166667, 13.894546, 13.000429, 11.941527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.1, "volume": 2724409, "typical_volume": 10190845.4, "trend": 10.716333, "fair_value": 7.408526, "relative_strength": -6.140893, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.49456, "energy": 24.576595, "activity_lines": [ 12.226667, 13.416364, 12.91781, 11.974581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.9, "volume": 5045000, "typical_volume": 8714548.8, "trend": 10.83, "fair_value": 7.436603, "relative_strength": -6.621955, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.739674, "energy": 23.762946, "activity_lines": [ 11.593333, 12.920909, 12.802286, 11.98643 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.35, "volume": 1613009, "typical_volume": 7988826.8, "trend": 10.936667, "fair_value": 7.467949, "relative_strength": -5.165541, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.426613, "energy": 21.060199, "activity_lines": [ 11.36, 12.508182, 12.721571, 12.019979 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 11.5, "volume": 1214084, "typical_volume": 7013601.85, "trend": 11.051667, "fair_value": 7.500962, "relative_strength": -7.20128, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.022869, "energy": 18.799479, "activity_lines": [ 11.326667, 12.118182, 12.653, 12.056323 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }