{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3ce3e152-659a-43e3-9654-823010732d64", "symbol": "ESGE", "name": "Amundi MSCI Europe ESG Selection UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 93.038, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 72.8, "architecture_energy": 61.663, "architecture_maturity": 73.954, "architecture_confidence": 50.628, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.41, "rotation_up": 47.2, "upward_expansion": 75.66, "deceleration": 72.68, "rotation_down": 29.22, "downward_expansion": 15.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 42.485667, 42.429455, 41.647739, 40.86885 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 42.889999, "trend_reference": 40.039167, "distance_from_trend": 0.071201, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 34.716731, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.235427, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.164157, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.099462, "excess_performance": -0.07143, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.071201, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046178, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.235427, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.06131, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.041642, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009834, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.099462, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.597733, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15132, "relative_activity": 0.416683, "balance": 1.597733, "dry_up": 1.228818, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01789, "annualized_volatility": 0.150276, "from_high_reference": -0.008897, "from_low_reference": 0.247709 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 40.039167, "fair_value_reference": 34.716731, "structural_low": 35.259998, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": 0.010261, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.008047, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.077865, "worst_return": -0.07894, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.026337, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.036, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.105207, "worst_return": -0.043036, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.069529, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.039439, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.158046, "worst_return": -0.123635, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"energy": 71.40405, "activity_lines": [ 42.407334, 42.195456, 41.201048, 40.508861 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 42.330002, "volume": 24755, "typical_volume": 36024.5, "trend": 39.896833, "fair_value": 34.630545, "relative_strength": -2.680578, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.429684, "energy": 56.709579, "activity_lines": [ 42.352668, 42.274729, 41.408668, 40.675743 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 42.889999, "volume": 15132, "typical_volume": 36315.4, "trend": 40.039167, "fair_value": 34.716731, "relative_strength": -4.164157, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.800421, "energy": 61.663352, "activity_lines": [ 42.485667, 42.429455, 41.647739, 40.86885 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }