{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3ce44a55-9594-4180-be61-66e891919dfb", "symbol": "XEMN", "name": "Xtrackers Emerging Markets Net Zero Pathway Paris Aligned UCITS ETF 1C USD Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 67.482, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 24.712, "architecture_energy": 26.289, "architecture_maturity": 63.393, "architecture_confidence": 78.083, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.57, "rotation_up": 20.66, "upward_expansion": 55.23, "deceleration": 91.16, "rotation_down": 39.52, "downward_expansion": 21.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 58.083333, 59.205818, 58.995333, 57.498398 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 58.5, "trend_reference": 55.454667, "distance_from_trend": 0.054916, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 40.501923, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.444376, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.749847, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.163253, "excess_performance": -0.007639, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.054916, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.091427, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.444376, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.112771, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.007498, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.155773, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.163253, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.19619, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3469, "relative_activity": 1.180454, "balance": 0.19619, "dry_up": 1.337496, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040815, "annualized_volatility": 0.253956, "from_high_reference": -0.083503, "from_low_reference": 0.429968 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 55.454667, "fair_value_reference": 40.501923, "structural_low": 48.014999, "invalidation": "A 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"median_return": 0.180664, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.129008, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.180664, "worst_return": 0.180664, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.126263, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.0311, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.023354, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.007051, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.029326, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.118267, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.01685, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.122831, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 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2650.65, "trend": 54.413667, "fair_value": 40.016218, "relative_strength": 3.688966, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.010904, "energy": 50.812842, "activity_lines": [ 60.595333, 60.544545, 58.774643, 56.936527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 58.18, "volume": 704, "typical_volume": 2653.45, "trend": 54.8385, "fair_value": 40.178013, "relative_strength": 2.655812, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.640918, "energy": 33.079294, "activity_lines": [ 59.561333, 60.171455, 58.929286, 57.179516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 56.419998, "volume": 2363, "typical_volume": 2768.7, "trend": 55.138833, "fair_value": 40.333301, "relative_strength": -1.262217, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.386213, "energy": 22.645474, "activity_lines": [ 58.305333, 59.477091, 58.877833, 57.281548 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 58.5, "volume": 3469, "typical_volume": 2938.7, "trend": 55.454667, "fair_value": 40.501923, "relative_strength": -0.749847, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.712443, "energy": 26.289093, "activity_lines": [ 58.083333, 59.205818, 58.995333, 57.498398 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }