{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3ce636b1-5f1e-4e4f-b3f6-3a6c1df0f01e", "symbol": "SHYAMTEL", "name": "Shyam Telecom Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -2.761, "architecture_energy": 21.965, "architecture_maturity": 50.188, "architecture_confidence": 71.358, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.53, "rotation_up": 14.09, "upward_expansion": 47.39, "deceleration": 79.4, "rotation_down": 45.52, "downward_expansion": 32.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.958, 16.758364, 17.389714, 16.193355 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 15.54, "trend_reference": 14.519667, "distance_from_trend": 0.070272, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.946859, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.114229, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 11.925768, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.566532, "excess_performance": 0.610241, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.070272, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.116897, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.114229, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.724174, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.119258, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.766429, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.566532, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.258765, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18449, "relative_activity": 0.21442, "balance": 0.258765, "dry_up": 0.137593, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.114494, "annualized_volatility": 1.055681, "from_high_reference": -0.38867, "from_low_reference": 1.19802 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.519667, "fair_value_reference": 13.946859, "structural_low": 7.07, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.135322, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.150993, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.854749, "worst_return": -0.249012, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.265458, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.304438, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.759777, "worst_return": -0.434783, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.16996, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.24962, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.470391, "worst_return": -0.203704, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.081988, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.013764, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.452514, "worst_return": -0.288538, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.031056, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.07972, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.120407, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.274521, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.150657, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.286062, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.117028, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.188364, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.043934, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.174185, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.167205, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.292002, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.315113, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.182536, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 6.5, "volume": 3048, "typical_volume": 5054.15, "trend": 8.003333, "fair_value": 10.09391, "relative_strength": -32.095146, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 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17.420476, 15.880882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.88, "volume": 4871, "typical_volume": 93874.5, "trend": 14.282333, "fair_value": 13.834808, "relative_strength": 18.726349, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.677013, "energy": 18.513613, "activity_lines": [ 16.807333, 17.322546, 17.435667, 15.99114 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.290001, "volume": 5029, "typical_volume": 93644.1, "trend": 14.413333, "fair_value": 13.892115, "relative_strength": 18.384549, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.151412, "energy": 22.312109, "activity_lines": [ 16.364667, 17.077637, 17.463667, 16.120667 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.54, "volume": 18449, "typical_volume": 86041.6, "trend": 14.519667, "fair_value": 13.946859, "relative_strength": 11.925768, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -2.760719, "energy": 21.965226, "activity_lines": [ 15.958, 16.758364, 17.389714, 16.193355 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }