{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3ceb5d79-b98a-4af2-acae-009d6fe45c4a", "symbol": "2820", "name": "China Bills Finance Corporation", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 91.557, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 26.681, "architecture_energy": 17.927, "architecture_maturity": 45.231, "architecture_confidence": 73.193, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.82, "rotation_up": 25.02, "upward_expansion": 56.33, "deceleration": 87.66, "rotation_down": 35.38, "downward_expansion": 22.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.463333, 16.604269, 16.504674, 16.384852 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 16.35, "trend_reference": 16.204939, "distance_from_trend": 0.008952, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.202741, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.151186, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -27.454666, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.053412, "excess_performance": -0.38796, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.008952, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017817, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.151186, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009514, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.274547, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034008, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.053412, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.975779, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13410992, "relative_activity": 1.386927, "balance": 0.975779, "dry_up": 1.132445, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027525, "annualized_volatility": 0.127386, "from_high_reference": -0.045801, "from_low_reference": 0.114776 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.204939, "fair_value_reference": 14.202741, "structural_low": 15.520986, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.006251, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.010333, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.069069, "worst_return": -0.022876, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.023256, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.030086, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.055901, "worst_return": -0.029674, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.009967, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.051821, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.099379, "worst_return": -0.002967, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003247, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.103565, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.002967, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.024024, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.005797, 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"direction": 61.206571, "energy": 46.52067, "activity_lines": [ 16.782657, 16.687454, 16.433104, 16.295568 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.549999, "volume": 8403221, "typical_volume": 8745947.45, "trend": 16.143511, "fair_value": 14.129591, "relative_strength": -25.086608, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.955908, "energy": 33.424061, "activity_lines": [ 16.686497, 16.693503, 16.459278, 16.322883 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.75, "volume": 10079783, "typical_volume": 8824890.85, "trend": 16.167075, "fair_value": 14.15596, "relative_strength": -22.554177, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.814089, "energy": 28.833129, "activity_lines": [ 16.683333, 16.723247, 16.502312, 16.362011 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.35, "volume": 11907047, "typical_volume": 9207635.2, "trend": 16.178887, "fair_value": 14.178937, "relative_strength": -25.586678, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.123569, "energy": 21.006746, "activity_lines": [ 16.556667, 16.667411, 16.504563, 16.373813 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 16.35, "volume": 13410992, "typical_volume": 9669576.3, "trend": 16.204939, "fair_value": 14.202741, "relative_strength": -27.454666, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.681424, "energy": 17.926981, "activity_lines": [ 16.463333, 16.604269, 16.504674, 16.384852 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }