{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3cee806e-af3d-4198-b09d-a940b51b6b31", "symbol": "LFT", "name": "Lument Finance Trust Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -81.059, "architecture_energy": 91.557, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 79.047, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.85, "rotation_up": 9.34, "upward_expansion": 21.73, "deceleration": 37.1, "rotation_down": 82.43, "downward_expansion": 97.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.754547, 0.838943, 0.940186, 1.02397 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.697, "trend_reference": 1.128459, "distance_from_trend": -0.382344, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.760417, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.604071, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -54.848216, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.467314, "excess_performance": -0.592938, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.382344, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.132558, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.604071, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.233577, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.548482, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.145967, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.467314, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.15618, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1285365, "relative_activity": 1.167085, "balance": 1.15618, "dry_up": 1.233592, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.145525, "annualized_volatility": 0.474105, "from_high_reference": -0.681784, "from_low_reference": 0.089573 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.128459, "fair_value_reference": 1.760417, "structural_low": 0.6397, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.002349, "positive_rate": 0.464286, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.015144, "regime_survival": 0.892857, "best_return": 0.140158, "worst_return": -0.261731, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.078301, "positive_rate": 0.1, "directional_follow_through": 0.9, "median_excess_return": -0.081219, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.303257, "worst_return": -0.262422, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.147567, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.158391, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.02286, "worst_return": -0.318831, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-07-28", "end": "2023-08-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.022936, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-08-25", "end": "2023-10-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.009201, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-10-20", "end": "2023-12-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.089109, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-22", "end": "2024-02-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.005998, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-03-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.093661, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.122726, "energy": 68.302298, "activity_lines": [ 0.897301, 0.936082, 1.016286, 1.086436 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.6599, "volume": 1892928, "typical_volume": 1100995.25, "trend": 1.151426, "fair_value": 1.765673, "relative_strength": -56.785526, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -92.929015, "energy": 94.13957, "activity_lines": [ 0.809473, 0.880468, 0.974741, 1.053288 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.697, "volume": 1285365, "typical_volume": 1101346.6, "trend": 1.128459, "fair_value": 1.760417, "relative_strength": -54.848216, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.05898, "energy": 91.557197, "activity_lines": [ 0.754547, 0.838943, 0.940186, 1.02397 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }