{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3cef4624-6aed-4109-955e-379ff0c4abd5", "symbol": "SDIV", "name": "GLOBAL X FDS SUPERDIVIDEND ETF(POST REV SPLT)", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -25.443, "architecture_energy": 19.1, "architecture_maturity": 18.845, "architecture_confidence": 66.625, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.11, "rotation_up": 33.82, "upward_expansion": 19.49, "deceleration": 42.2, "rotation_down": 22.91, "downward_expansion": 53.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.692275, 24.549125, 24.704854, 24.762526 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 24.81, "trend_reference": 24.8255, "distance_from_trend": -0.000624, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.036979, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.238211, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.369543, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.018157, "excess_performance": -0.143782, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.000624, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019085, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.238211, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.098614, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.073695, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081531, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.018157, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.004106, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2433412, "relative_activity": 1.082114, "balance": 1.004106, "dry_up": 0.778423, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.021778, "annualized_volatility": 0.125513, "from_high_reference": -0.045385, "from_low_reference": 0.161077 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.8255, "fair_value_reference": 20.036979, "structural_low": 23.646618, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.00286, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.013143, "regime_survival": 0.230769, "best_return": 0.058244, "worst_return": -0.079356, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.035023, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.017975, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.113481, "worst_return": -0.132861, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.006944, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.065636, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.16106, "worst_return": -0.176287, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.039348, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.198122, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.345505, "worst_return": -0.262385, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009593, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007124, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.005668, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003151, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.07771, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.032505, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.13829, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014232, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.028529, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-17", 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47.823884, "activity_lines": [ 24.288438, 24.447805, 24.73537, 24.769284 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 24.72971, "volume": 1632638, "typical_volume": 2655180.95, "trend": 24.704942, "fair_value": 19.890748, "relative_strength": -4.189105, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.221018, "energy": 22.108255, "activity_lines": [ 24.424403, 24.457556, 24.728023, 24.774613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.551013, "volume": 1461226, "typical_volume": 2451789.6, "trend": 24.748851, "fair_value": 19.936319, "relative_strength": -4.251357, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -12.798752, "energy": 12.15845, "activity_lines": [ 24.503338, 24.455735, 24.707195, 24.764682 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.699928, "volume": 1474666, "typical_volume": 2306554.05, "trend": 24.7945, "fair_value": 19.985818, "relative_strength": -4.652877, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.168882, "energy": 19.595875, "activity_lines": [ 24.5954, 24.489996, 24.702278, 24.761526 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.81, "volume": 2433412, "typical_volume": 2248758.3, "trend": 24.8255, "fair_value": 20.036979, "relative_strength": -7.369543, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.442505, "energy": 19.099981, "activity_lines": [ 24.692275, 24.549125, 24.704854, 24.762526 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }