{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3cf156dd-9639-4225-83d9-8ab55125d4c4", "symbol": "601555", "name": "Soochow Securities Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -34.987, "architecture_energy": 18.884, "architecture_maturity": 75.431, "architecture_confidence": 75.615, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.44, "rotation_up": 25.3, "upward_expansion": 17.84, "deceleration": 45.61, "rotation_down": 29.95, "downward_expansion": 56.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.875694, 7.824798, 7.862575, 8.037587 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 8.03, "trend_reference": 8.348523, "distance_from_trend": -0.038153, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.706054, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.042038, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.341596, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.16092, "excess_performance": -0.117716, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.038153, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051951, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.042038, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044111, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.083416, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.076266, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.16092, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.3701, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 175049829, "relative_activity": 0.990464, "balance": 0.3701, "dry_up": 1.147394, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05089, "annualized_volatility": 0.237425, "from_high_reference": -0.23819, "from_low_reference": 0.091033 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.348523, "fair_value_reference": 7.706054, "structural_low": 7.36, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.009843, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.00425, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.230303, "worst_return": -0.138441, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.013914, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.013148, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.327985, "worst_return": -0.20222, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.027205, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.0273, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.26571, "worst_return": -0.147475, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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{ "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.746959, "volume": 205714837, "typical_volume": 172264768.45, "trend": 8.463491, "fair_value": 7.687947, "relative_strength": -8.908539, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.8623, "energy": 29.297821, "activity_lines": [ 7.786264, 7.762501, 7.899451, 8.143402 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.698297, "volume": 216958785, "typical_volume": 183112707.7, "trend": 8.424767, "fair_value": 7.693152, "relative_strength": -10.292342, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.928738, "energy": 28.759651, "activity_lines": [ 7.764715, 7.745015, 7.862886, 8.094035 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.902677, "volume": 213416358, "typical_volume": 193783525.6, "trend": 8.382856, "fair_value": 7.699431, "relative_strength": -7.727096, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.27829, "energy": 25.564649, "activity_lines": [ 7.803407, 7.773447, 7.853364, 8.060352 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.03, "volume": 175049829, "typical_volume": 176735260.4, "trend": 8.348523, "fair_value": 7.706054, "relative_strength": -8.341596, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.986864, "energy": 18.884429, "activity_lines": [ 7.875694, 7.824798, 7.862575, 8.037587 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }