{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3cf9ad58-4753-4a9e-97bd-8104fdd7b90e", "symbol": "603037", "name": "Shanghai Carthane Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.314, "architecture_energy": 64.272, "architecture_maturity": 40.416, "architecture_confidence": 93.63, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.36, "rotation_up": 21.0, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 49.07, "rotation_down": 62.47, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.718667, 10.011071, 11.278265, 12.186745 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 10.23, "trend_reference": 13.608202, "distance_from_trend": -0.248247, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.126493, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.080573, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.030088, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.383363, "excess_performance": -0.34016, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.248247, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073993, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.080573, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.426906, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.240301, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.20121, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.383363, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.634631, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17570181, "relative_activity": 0.610335, "balance": 0.634631, "dry_up": 0.734951, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.107367, "annualized_volatility": 0.424981, "from_high_reference": -0.500488, "from_low_reference": 0.189535 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.608202, "fair_value_reference": 11.126493, "structural_low": 8.6, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.034498, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.01885, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.142462, "worst_return": -0.159247, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.024581, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.025996, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.302977, "worst_return": -0.061166, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.095804, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.061765, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.22328, "worst_return": -0.031673, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 9.718667, 10.011071, 11.278265, 12.186745 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }