{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3cf9e9b2-88d4-49c3-98e6-7f56d23025e3", "symbol": "FUSU", "name": "Fidelity US Quality Income UCITS ETF EUR Hedged Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 76.698, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 93.625, "architecture_energy": 81.854, "architecture_maturity": 32.405, "architecture_confidence": 65.621, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.49, "rotation_up": 78.06, "upward_expansion": 90.84, "deceleration": 49.05, "rotation_down": 15.94, "downward_expansion": 15.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.146533, 12.033055, 11.879181, 11.700654 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 12.436, "trend_reference": 11.514133, "distance_from_trend": 0.080064, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.847885, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.262809, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.040392, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.094718, "excess_performance": -0.076173, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.080064, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027106, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.262809, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038887, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.050404, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002123, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.094718, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.18142, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 39, "relative_activity": 0.002163, "balance": 5.18142, "dry_up": 0.771172, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01419, "annualized_volatility": 0.107844, "from_high_reference": -0.003366, "from_low_reference": 0.195539 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.514133, "fair_value_reference": 9.847885, "structural_low": 10.564, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.013446, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.005991, "regime_survival": 0.821429, "best_return": 0.035388, "worst_return": -0.039121, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.03058, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.022322, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.078794, "worst_return": -0.051274, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.063775, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.023565, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.111784, "worst_return": -0.016958, "sufficient": true }, { 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11.417867, "fair_value": 9.771205, "relative_strength": -4.523871, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 88.20663, "energy": 84.164273, "activity_lines": [ 11.978, 11.905964, 11.714305, 11.571544 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.9, "volume": 2459, "typical_volume": 17766.55, "trend": 11.443133, "fair_value": 9.794724, "relative_strength": -6.092712, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.958208, "energy": 83.356441, "activity_lines": [ 11.975867, 11.913418, 11.753057, 11.602649 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.0, "volume": 13869, "typical_volume": 18031.6, "trend": 11.4738, "fair_value": 9.819865, "relative_strength": -5.792481, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.664602, "energy": 75.967855, "activity_lines": [ 11.999867, 11.935164, 11.797933, 11.638576 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.436, "volume": 39, "typical_volume": 18031.0, "trend": 11.514133, "fair_value": 9.847885, "relative_strength": -5.040392, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 93.625466, "energy": 81.853624, "activity_lines": [ 12.146533, 12.033055, 11.879181, 11.700654 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }