{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3cfd3dcb-2ca3-422f-99c0-b1db4657429b", "symbol": "WAX", "name": "WAM Research Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -31.664, "architecture_energy": 16.691, "architecture_maturity": 76.617, "architecture_confidence": 64.003, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.01, "rotation_up": 27.03, "upward_expansion": 17.5, "deceleration": 45.5, "rotation_down": 24.39, "downward_expansion": 53.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.065, 1.059182, 1.064456, 1.075908 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.06, "trend_reference": 1.100063, "distance_from_trend": -0.036419, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.018068, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.041188, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.097059, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.099739, "excess_performance": -0.163444, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.036419, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036892, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.041188, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084091, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.110971, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.101853, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.099739, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.581951, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 790037, "relative_activity": 0.998537, "balance": 0.581951, "dry_up": 0.922673, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034424, "annualized_volatility": 0.146733, "from_high_reference": -0.153611, "from_low_reference": 0.044335 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.100063, "fair_value_reference": 1.018068, "structural_low": 1.015, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.007916, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.007473, "regime_survival": 0.772727, "best_return": 0.130112, "worst_return": -0.103139, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.013442, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.025896, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.048443, "worst_return": -0.107404, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.056843, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.084253, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": -0.023853, "worst_return": -0.124385, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.177462, "energy": 27.465471, "activity_lines": [ 1.055333, 1.051727, 1.066249, 1.083633 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.07, "volume": 814840, "typical_volume": 830507.55, "trend": 1.108189, "fair_value": 1.015565, "relative_strength": -5.542939, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.735669, "energy": 20.440141, "activity_lines": [ 1.061333, 1.054, 1.065603, 1.080979 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.075, "volume": 627692, "typical_volume": 827794.75, "trend": 1.105413, "fair_value": 1.016877, "relative_strength": -7.147941, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.190822, "energy": 16.946106, "activity_lines": [ 1.067333, 1.057727, 1.065671, 1.078838 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.06, "volume": 790037, "typical_volume": 791194.15, "trend": 1.100063, "fair_value": 1.018068, "relative_strength": -11.097059, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.664053, "energy": 16.691207, "activity_lines": [ 1.065, 1.059182, 1.064456, 1.075908 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }