{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3d012c07-04d7-485b-a154-d567332199b4", "symbol": "CBSEU", "name": "UBS BBG MSCI Euro Area Liquid Corp Sustainable UCITS ETF EUR dis", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 30.959, "architecture_energy": 24.505, "architecture_maturity": 61.741, "architecture_confidence": 77.02, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.23, "rotation_up": 25.29, "upward_expansion": 55.91, "deceleration": 87.73, "rotation_down": 40.75, "downward_expansion": 21.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.014133, 13.0364, 13.025029, 13.008507 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 13.054, "trend_reference": 13.003274, "distance_from_trend": 0.003901, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.456612, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.047958, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.958408, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.000697, "excess_performance": -0.171588, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.003901, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002394, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.047958, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006184, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.139584, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020551, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.000697, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.953619, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7907, "relative_activity": 0.119693, "balance": 1.953619, "dry_up": 0.955047, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.005186, "annualized_volatility": 0.038121, "from_high_reference": -0.006394, "from_low_reference": 0.025613 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.003274, "fair_value_reference": 12.456612, "structural_low": 12.728, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": 0.003055, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.008381, "regime_survival": 0.787879, "best_return": 0.045172, "worst_return": -0.028789, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.009266, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.061828, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.036995, "worst_return": -0.00989, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.02355, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.067046, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.048516, "worst_return": -0.060338, 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13.074667, 13.039527, 12.996505, 12.993622 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 13.114, "volume": 2903, "typical_volume": 74980.35, "trend": 12.990086, "fair_value": 12.403344, "relative_strength": -14.102827, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.297163, "energy": 69.399708, "activity_lines": [ 13.090667, 13.058109, 13.008552, 13.001946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 13.064, "volume": 26128, "typical_volume": 71146.65, "trend": 12.994899, "fair_value": 12.414486, "relative_strength": -13.685474, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.567195, "energy": 63.517201, "activity_lines": [ 13.087867, 13.064691, 13.015771, 13.006714 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.008, "volume": 57053, "typical_volume": 72833.65, "trend": 12.998174, "fair_value": 12.42499, "relative_strength": -12.447468, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.856526, "energy": 43.627277, "activity_lines": [ 13.063333, 13.059018, 13.017886, 13.007559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.978, "volume": 59932, "typical_volume": 71109.85, "trend": 12.999793, "fair_value": 12.435174, "relative_strength": -12.131285, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.678132, "energy": 14.687783, "activity_lines": [ 13.0316, 13.047345, 13.017724, 13.006258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.982, "volume": 127472, "typical_volume": 67128.0, "trend": 13.001349, "fair_value": 12.445521, "relative_strength": -12.297401, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.327516, "energy": 19.851531, "activity_lines": [ 13.005867, 13.035236, 13.01821, 13.00511 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.054, "volume": 7907, "typical_volume": 66060.65, "trend": 13.003274, "fair_value": 12.456612, "relative_strength": -13.958408, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.959186, "energy": 24.504581, "activity_lines": [ 13.014133, 13.0364, 13.025029, 13.008507 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }