{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3d0aac95-4014-4315-91ff-158d1078e227", "symbol": "ADIV", "name": "GUINNESS ATKINSON ASIA PACIFIC DIVIDEND BUILDER ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 60.408, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 73.274, "architecture_energy": 71.009, "architecture_maturity": 33.209, "architecture_confidence": 74.686, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.89, "rotation_up": 72.31, "upward_expansion": 90.94, "deceleration": 42.38, "rotation_down": 14.81, "downward_expansion": 17.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.457467, 19.204208, 19.013636, 18.793129 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 19.785, "trend_reference": 18.575523, "distance_from_trend": 0.065111, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.382914, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.286167, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.429983, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.064468, "excess_performance": -0.061157, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.065111, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020251, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.286167, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005648, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.0343, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005768, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.064468, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.063305, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13230, "relative_activity": 0.274529, "balance": 2.063305, "dry_up": 0.558748, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029143, "annualized_volatility": 0.149656, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.16111 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.575523, "fair_value_reference": 15.382914, "structural_low": 17.09671, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.000941, "positive_rate": 0.482759, "directional_follow_through": 0.482759, "median_excess_return": 0.000725, "regime_survival": 0.793103, "best_return": 0.145493, "worst_return": -0.070716, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.03531, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.019899, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.11574, "worst_return": -0.03312, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.091578, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.053806, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.160808, "worst_return": -0.008406, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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-2.185371, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.574433, "energy": 31.64073, "activity_lines": [ 18.98686, 18.945362, 18.807373, 18.641855 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.5548, "volume": 61016, "typical_volume": 52243.65, "trend": 18.522535, "fair_value": 15.332777, "relative_strength": -1.369402, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.525115, "energy": 58.158927, "activity_lines": [ 19.216047, 19.059785, 18.904053, 18.71168 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.785, "volume": 13230, "typical_volume": 48191.7, "trend": 18.575523, "fair_value": 15.382914, "relative_strength": -3.429983, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.274036, "energy": 71.008623, "activity_lines": [ 19.457467, 19.204208, 19.013636, 18.793129 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }