{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3d0e6306-2e89-4a9c-a921-5d436738b4b0", "symbol": "FTSL", "name": "FIRST TRUST SENIOR LOAN FUND", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 72.572, "architecture_energy": 71.992, "architecture_maturity": 28.645, "architecture_confidence": 65.199, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.98, "rotation_up": 73.88, "upward_expansion": 91.25, "deceleration": 42.17, "rotation_down": 10.89, "downward_expansion": 15.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 44.820812, 44.739841, 44.696696, 44.615293 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 44.9054, "trend_reference": 44.546099, "distance_from_trend": 0.008066, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 41.939347, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.070722, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.722076, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.011189, "excess_performance": -0.176265, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.008066, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001208, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.070722, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013489, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.117221, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039768, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.011189, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.075151, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 842149, "relative_activity": 0.6446, "balance": 1.075151, "dry_up": 0.751018, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.003973, "annualized_volatility": 0.026887, "from_high_reference": -0.00077, "from_low_reference": 0.050481 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 44.546099, "fair_value_reference": 41.939347, "structural_low": 43.680138, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 52, "median_return": 0.004356, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.017716, "regime_survival": 0.923077, "best_return": 0.020094, "worst_return": -0.010478, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.01251, "positive_rate": 0.941176, "directional_follow_through": 0.941176, "median_excess_return": -0.030387, "regime_survival": 0.882353, "best_return": 0.03753, "worst_return": -0.002229, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.032742, "positive_rate": 0.888889, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": -0.063768, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 0.057919, "worst_return": -0.061549, 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"2026-07-24", "close": 44.74, "volume": 976426, "typical_volume": 1339123.3, "trend": 44.541293, "fair_value": 41.841803, "relative_strength": -7.765018, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.056806, "energy": 48.773243, "activity_lines": [ 44.704439, 44.667986, 44.642036, 44.573407 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 44.83, "volume": 944412, "typical_volume": 1313982.7, "trend": 44.544874, "fair_value": 41.890622, "relative_strength": -7.739691, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.238891, "energy": 63.370243, "activity_lines": [ 44.761914, 44.698558, 44.667271, 44.592034 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 44.9054, "volume": 842149, "typical_volume": 1306468.0, "trend": 44.546099, "fair_value": 41.939347, "relative_strength": -11.722076, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.572183, "energy": 71.992298, "activity_lines": [ 44.820812, 44.739841, 44.696696, 44.615293 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }