{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3d127870-dfb4-4f8f-9b80-9e84d12eeafe", "symbol": "CPNJ", "name": "CALAMOS NASDAQ-100 STRUCTURED ALT PROTECTION ETF - JUNE", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 66.65, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 28.418, "architecture_energy": 12.229, "architecture_maturity": 15.535, "architecture_confidence": 76.656, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.84, "rotation_up": 32.04, "upward_expansion": 48.77, "deceleration": 78.76, "rotation_down": 23.13, "downward_expansion": 24.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.523247, 27.528016, 27.535593, 27.464345 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 27.65, "trend_reference": 27.35974, "distance_from_trend": 0.010609, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.884405, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.068211, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.117306, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.020348, "excess_performance": -0.105277, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.010609, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008069, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.068211, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006562, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.091173, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007935, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.020348, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.33023, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 41125, "relative_activity": 0.832207, "balance": 1.33023, "dry_up": 0.922374, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01272, "annualized_volatility": 0.026109, "from_high_reference": -0.075557, "from_low_reference": 0.050532 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.35974, "fair_value_reference": 25.884405, "structural_low": 26.87, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": 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}, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.4457, "volume": 41694, "typical_volume": 48076.6, "trend": 27.340683, "fair_value": 25.868781, "relative_strength": -6.900247, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.899524, "energy": 9.389704, "activity_lines": [ 27.472487, 27.506645, 27.5175, 27.444389 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.65, "volume": 41125, "typical_volume": 49416.8, "trend": 27.35974, "fair_value": 25.884405, "relative_strength": -9.117306, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.418064, "energy": 12.228691, "activity_lines": [ 27.523247, 27.528016, 27.535593, 27.464345 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }