{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3d225e86-673c-4282-a8ad-022ecfdaa3fa", "symbol": "300205", "name": "Wuhan Tianyu Information Industry Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 65.12, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -25.633, "architecture_energy": 21.87, "architecture_maturity": 23.386, "architecture_confidence": 79.204, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.75, "rotation_up": 28.34, "upward_expansion": 14.21, "deceleration": 64.48, "rotation_down": 41.18, "downward_expansion": 42.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.044667, 5.07, 5.324238, 5.364043 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.25, "trend_reference": 5.289667, "distance_from_trend": -0.007499, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.338447, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.171721, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.118127, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.218097, "excess_performance": 0.210698, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.007499, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039704, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.171721, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019583, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.001181, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015442, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.218097, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.639252, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10669550, "relative_activity": 0.530604, "balance": 0.639252, "dry_up": 0.603656, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.089377, "annualized_volatility": 0.549501, "from_high_reference": -0.232456, "from_low_reference": 0.474719 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.289667, "fair_value_reference": 6.338447, "structural_low": 4.19, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.021151, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.099589, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.0058, "worst_return": -0.081031, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.047882, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.035035, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.077834, "worst_return": 0.003314, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.163904, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.402055, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.104907, "worst_return": -0.477216, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 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"blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013605, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.251111, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.061798, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.190889, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.175772, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.154008, "active": false }, { 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"stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.970834, "energy": 49.480638, "activity_lines": [ 5.020667, 5.229091, 5.477048, 5.40772 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.86, "volume": 14978211, "typical_volume": 22390082.55, "trend": 5.25, "fair_value": 6.446102, "relative_strength": -4.663995, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.764405, "energy": 52.506612, "activity_lines": [ 4.948667, 5.131273, 5.409857, 5.384989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.95, "volume": 7929246, "typical_volume": 20970219.65, "trend": 5.274667, "fair_value": 6.391089, "relative_strength": -1.140487, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.384087, "energy": 43.171868, "activity_lines": [ 4.943333, 5.064909, 5.351524, 5.365634 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.25, "volume": 10669550, "typical_volume": 20108327.25, "trend": 5.289667, "fair_value": 6.338447, "relative_strength": 0.118127, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.633481, "energy": 21.869653, "activity_lines": [ 5.044667, 5.07, 5.324238, 5.364043 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }