{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3d243508-8333-4c7d-ba97-a655db8839d5", "symbol": "IVOL", "name": "KRANESHARES TRUST QUADRATIC INT RTE VOL & INF HDG ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.017, "architecture_energy": 48.707, "architecture_maturity": 95.193, "architecture_confidence": 64.478, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.74, "rotation_up": 27.43, "upward_expansion": 20.4, "deceleration": 66.93, "rotation_down": 44.3, "downward_expansion": 70.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.349267, 17.335873, 17.535698, 17.778337 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 17.46, "trend_reference": 18.0842, "distance_from_trend": -0.034516, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.150646, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.038051, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.963545, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.070442, "excess_performance": -0.196067, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.034516, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027021, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.038051, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031396, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.159635, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016947, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.070442, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.773168, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1527028, "relative_activity": 1.421055, "balance": 0.773168, "dry_up": 0.631113, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.013959, "annualized_volatility": 0.051427, "from_high_reference": -0.111733, "from_low_reference": 0.021668 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.0842, "fair_value_reference": 18.150646, "structural_low": 17.089698, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": -0.004549, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.010969, "regime_survival": 0.771429, "best_return": 0.093601, "worst_return": -0.052105, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.0222, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.029561, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.064248, "worst_return": -0.087528, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.014372, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.049671, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.116118, "worst_return": -0.126986, "sufficient": true 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"2026-07-03", "close": 17.322897, "volume": 290287, "typical_volume": 1157643.9, "trend": 18.327347, "fair_value": 18.197156, "relative_strength": -15.64549, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.684067, "energy": 84.598462, "activity_lines": [ 17.357464, 17.51343, 17.849767, 18.071635 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 17.243136, "volume": 225133, "typical_volume": 1133215.95, "trend": 18.275177, "fair_value": 18.188052, "relative_strength": -16.731505, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.642937, "energy": 81.765385, "activity_lines": [ 17.307015, 17.434387, 17.765579, 18.001686 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.302957, "volume": 342217, "typical_volume": 1112966.75, "trend": 18.224019, "fair_value": 18.178985, "relative_strength": -14.688587, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.126239, "energy": 65.620116, "activity_lines": [ 17.29278, 17.384704, 17.694398, 17.938962 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.183316, "volume": 277065, "typical_volume": 1087800.7, "trend": 18.170509, "fair_value": 18.169539, "relative_strength": -14.370961, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.246944, "energy": 67.547622, "activity_lines": [ 17.256266, 17.328857, 17.619516, 17.87182 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.385, "volume": 566402, "typical_volume": 1068909.5, "trend": 18.123478, "fair_value": 18.158492, "relative_strength": -13.846657, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.071372, "energy": 61.061926, "activity_lines": [ 17.291754, 17.321932, 17.571163, 17.821142 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.46, "volume": 1527028, "typical_volume": 1074573.8, "trend": 18.0842, "fair_value": 18.150646, "relative_strength": -15.963545, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.017111, "energy": 48.707368, "activity_lines": [ 17.349267, 17.335873, 17.535698, 17.778337 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }