{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3d2a47ea-216f-4e05-baed-e4b2970c5259", "symbol": "SKB", "name": "Koenig & Bauer AG", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -31.96, "architecture_energy": 14.111, "architecture_maturity": 10.854, "architecture_confidence": 63.798, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.18, "rotation_up": 21.68, "upward_expansion": 11.88, "deceleration": 41.08, "rotation_down": 29.15, "downward_expansion": 57.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.917333, 8.869091, 8.973429, 8.998559 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 8.87, "trend_reference": 9.099667, "distance_from_trend": -0.025239, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.995513, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.260557, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -32.822793, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.046237, "excess_performance": -0.220483, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.025239, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055561, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.260557, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020679, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.328228, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019378, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.046237, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.599939, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 837, "relative_activity": 2.435972, "balance": 0.599939, "dry_up": 0.608993, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057497, "annualized_volatility": 0.291789, "from_high_reference": -0.45449, "from_low_reference": 0.129936 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.099667, "fair_value_reference": 11.995513, "structural_low": 7.85, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.082734, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.147606, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.157834, "worst_return": -0.192009, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.114147, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.146522, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.089527, "worst_return": -0.3003, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.334286, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.389311, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.0625, "worst_return": -0.353687, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.325461, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.643046, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.293779, "worst_return": -0.357143, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.096525, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.175105, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.199074, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.036946, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.194839, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.052632, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.087827, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.111429, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.091633, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.166417, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.095661, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.14053, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.001112, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 14.24, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 158.4, "trend": 18.276, "fair_value": 21.25782, "relative_strength": -12.701425, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", 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"activity_lines": [ 8.749333, 8.914, 9.013095, 9.117204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 8.95, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 685.95, "trend": 9.338667, "fair_value": 12.197628, "relative_strength": -34.965997, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.785327, "energy": 39.341368, "activity_lines": [ 8.806667, 8.895636, 9.00781, 9.088581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.76, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 515.2, "trend": 9.279333, "fair_value": 12.132115, "relative_strength": -34.042514, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.841865, "energy": 29.961236, "activity_lines": [ 8.803333, 8.849273, 8.985476, 9.051247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.98, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 344.85, "trend": 9.224667, "fair_value": 12.074167, "relative_strength": -32.280905, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.026171, "energy": 16.249508, "activity_lines": [ 8.880667, 8.850364, 8.98581, 9.031935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 301.75, "trend": 9.162667, "fair_value": 12.031218, "relative_strength": -31.023059, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.871954, "energy": 14.317114, "activity_lines": [ 8.939333, 8.870364, 8.986667, 9.017441 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.87, "volume": 837, "typical_volume": 343.6, "trend": 9.099667, "fair_value": 11.995513, "relative_strength": -32.822793, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.960319, "energy": 14.110851, "activity_lines": [ 8.917333, 8.869091, 8.973429, 8.998559 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }