{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3d2f2365-2124-460f-908d-d12264b85662", "symbol": "SPRU", "name": "Spruce Power Holding Corp", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.411, "architecture_energy": 74.132, "architecture_maturity": 49.926, "architecture_confidence": 95.428, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.54, "rotation_up": 20.56, "upward_expansion": 16.67, "deceleration": 41.68, "rotation_down": 65.86, "downward_expansion": 92.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.157333, 2.323636, 2.634714, 2.982452 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 2.17, "trend_reference": 3.537667, "distance_from_trend": -0.386601, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.331813, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.348703, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -44.557066, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.558045, "excess_performance": -0.68367, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.386601, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.188422, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.348703, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.242568, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.445571, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.354472, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.558045, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.617412, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 209434, "relative_activity": 0.985319, "balance": 0.617412, "dry_up": 0.70841, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.177983, "annualized_volatility": 0.592141, "from_high_reference": -0.678519, "from_low_reference": 0.644064 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.537667, "fair_value_reference": 3.331813, "structural_low": 1.91, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 49, "median_return": -0.042759, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.06257, "regime_survival": 0.897959, "best_return": 0.590909, "worst_return": -0.472441, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.184807, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.224427, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 2.464052, "worst_return": -0.447955, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.277847, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.267469, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.345361, "worst_return": -0.590345, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.701816, "energy": 63.641555, "activity_lines": [ 2.568, 2.681091, 3.035238, 3.399634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.4, "volume": 95834, "typical_volume": 224907.5, "trend": 3.843667, "fair_value": 3.440297, "relative_strength": -35.737522, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.927672, "energy": 67.312524, "activity_lines": [ 2.482667, 2.609818, 2.945333, 3.300731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.17, "volume": 108013, "typical_volume": 221299.1, "trend": 3.745667, "fair_value": 3.402413, "relative_strength": -41.751475, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.868101, "energy": 83.42862, "activity_lines": [ 2.35, 2.513091, 2.841286, 3.192753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.95, "volume": 189022, "typical_volume": 218473.2, "trend": 3.634, "fair_value": 3.363631, "relative_strength": -48.360596, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.219181, "energy": 88.133508, "activity_lines": [ 2.192667, 2.388545, 2.722429, 3.076903 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.17, "volume": 209434, "typical_volume": 212554.45, "trend": 3.537667, "fair_value": 3.331813, "relative_strength": -44.557066, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.410987, "energy": 74.132483, "activity_lines": [ 2.157333, 2.323636, 2.634714, 2.982452 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }