{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3d2f6a0b-5f43-4366-8763-96a4e825da8e", "symbol": "301117", "name": "Jiayuan Science and Technology Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.842, "architecture_energy": 81.271, "architecture_maturity": 42.0, "architecture_confidence": 88.324, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.2, "rotation_up": 11.89, "upward_expansion": 18.94, "deceleration": 39.4, "rotation_down": 76.65, "downward_expansion": 94.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.488, 19.475636, 23.173585, 26.111988 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 18.58, "trend_reference": 30.679857, "distance_from_trend": -0.394391, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 22.350029, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.168681, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -40.580326, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.530469, "excess_performance": -0.537869, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.394391, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.117078, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.168681, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.627006, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.405803, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.407321, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.530469, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.208494, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 37685244, "relative_activity": 1.223488, "balance": 0.208494, "dry_up": 1.690249, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.175085, "annualized_volatility": 0.576095, "from_high_reference": -0.692093, "from_low_reference": 0.290278 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.679857, "fair_value_reference": 22.350029, "structural_low": 14.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.034608, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.470588, "median_excess_return": -0.021857, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.389071, "worst_return": -0.274596, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.066916, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.056159, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.462744, "worst_return": -0.193267, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.012358, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.074218, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.902728, "worst_return": -0.324202, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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-44.21588, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -91.023547, "energy": 88.398865, "activity_lines": [ 20.559334, 22.858026, 26.154517, 29.007846 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.59, "volume": 52534023, "typical_volume": 32048472.65, "trend": 32.190809, "fair_value": 22.539429, "relative_strength": -45.190873, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.41678, "energy": 89.161764, "activity_lines": [ 18.780667, 21.375325, 24.99585, 27.951935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.42, "volume": 37206150, "typical_volume": 31384805.55, "trend": 31.32838, "fair_value": 22.422452, "relative_strength": -44.821837, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.992459, "energy": 87.665088, "activity_lines": [ 17.559333, 20.110727, 23.931755, 26.934464 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.58, "volume": 37685244, "typical_volume": 30801478.8, "trend": 30.679857, "fair_value": 22.350029, "relative_strength": -40.580326, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.841721, "energy": 81.271049, "activity_lines": [ 17.488, 19.475636, 23.173585, 26.111988 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }