{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3d30f235-8e3a-450e-bacf-6321612baca7", "symbol": "NAG", "name": "Nagambie Resources Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.664, "architecture_energy": 54.872, "architecture_maturity": 72.053, "architecture_confidence": 91.856, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.88, "rotation_up": 17.89, "upward_expansion": 9.11, "deceleration": 60.66, "rotation_down": 62.02, "downward_expansion": 82.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.008, 0.008491, 0.00941, 0.010312 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.008, "trend_reference": 0.01145, "distance_from_trend": -0.30131, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.016657, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.519723, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -37.502525, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.5, "excess_performance": -0.563706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.30131, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069106, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.519723, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.14749, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.375025, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.239193, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.5, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.218186, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2343586, "relative_activity": 0.649231, "balance": 0.218186, "dry_up": 1.647978, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.173077, "annualized_volatility": 0.868619, "from_high_reference": -0.578947, "from_low_reference": 0.333333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.01145, "fair_value_reference": 0.016657, "structural_low": 0.006, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": -0.08319, "positive_rate": 0.361111, "directional_follow_through": 0.611111, "median_excess_return": -0.095178, "regime_survival": 0.805556, "best_return": 0.875, "worst_return": -0.4, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.113529, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.101513, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.9, "worst_return": -0.6, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.147059, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.239534, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.58, "worst_return": -0.403509, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.0625, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.133333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.1875, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.0625, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.153846, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.417641, "energy": 84.008826, "activity_lines": [ 0.009067, 0.009455, 0.010424, 0.011202 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.01, "volume": 2796884, "typical_volume": 4749405.2, "trend": 0.011767, "fair_value": 0.017221, "relative_strength": -20.610655, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.799831, "energy": 58.243758, "activity_lines": [ 0.009333, 0.009464, 0.010298, 0.011086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.009, "volume": 1305894, "typical_volume": 3725239.1, "trend": 0.0117, "fair_value": 0.017022, "relative_strength": -27.552869, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.273355, "energy": 53.993387, "activity_lines": [ 0.009267, 0.009327, 0.010105, 0.010908 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.006, "volume": 17349043, "typical_volume": 3679551.45, "trend": 0.011533, "fair_value": 0.016843, "relative_strength": -52.262567, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -90.959488, "energy": 66.127333, "activity_lines": [ 0.0082, 0.008682, 0.009645, 0.01054 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.008, "volume": 2343586, "typical_volume": 3609788.8, "trend": 0.01145, "fair_value": 0.016657, "relative_strength": -37.502525, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.664113, "energy": 54.872305, "activity_lines": [ 0.008, 0.008491, 0.00941, 0.010312 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }