{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3d30fa7f-2db3-4de6-88b9-e140e1d7ea4f", "symbol": "CYB", "name": "Cyberoo S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 57.508, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 2.47, "architecture_energy": 11.784, "architecture_maturity": 19.91, "architecture_confidence": 44.465, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.88, "rotation_up": 21.4, "upward_expansion": 23.81, "deceleration": 65.97, "rotation_down": 42.41, "downward_expansion": 30.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.208, 1.234455, 1.209286, 1.185258 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.205, "trend_reference": 1.194267, "distance_from_trend": 0.008987, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.166942, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.443917, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -25.47806, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.104089, "excess_performance": -0.274981, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.008987, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053121, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.443917, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.083778, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.254781, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.09596, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.104089, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.511659, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 103889, "relative_activity": 0.463657, "balance": 1.511659, "dry_up": 0.660001, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.084264, "annualized_volatility": 0.39186, "from_high_reference": -0.403465, "from_low_reference": 0.366213 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.194267, "fair_value_reference": 2.166942, "structural_low": 0.882, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.030405, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": 0.008839, "regime_survival": 0.384615, "best_return": 0.095491, "worst_return": -0.146739, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.055506, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.002281, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.130952, "worst_return": -0.270517, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.057065, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.015018, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.208226, "worst_return": -0.431611, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.214502, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.402984, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.277174, "worst_return": -0.290541, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-01-05", "end": "2024-03-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.092784, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.018293, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.060345, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.051672, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.504967, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.045317, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.062323, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.171196, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.03, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.205479, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.109312, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.012195, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 3.2, "volume": 25220, "typical_volume": 82930.85, "trend": 2.941167, "fair_value": 1.913173, "relative_strength": 17.229823, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.34577, "energy": 64.069558, "activity_lines": [ 3.232, 3.167182, 3.071262, 3.028785 ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 3.25, "volume": 67846, "typical_volume": 80882.05, "trend": 2.970833, "fair_value": 1.927003, "relative_strength": 16.489506, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.8084, "energy": 49.824222, "activity_lines": [ 3.236667, 3.194727, 3.093429, 3.04871 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-01", "close": 3.235, "volume": 94646, "typical_volume": 81372.85, "trend": 3.000333, "fair_value": 1.940946, "relative_strength": 13.498382, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.188892, "energy": 41.113436, "activity_lines": [ 3.233, 3.213, 3.11331, 3.065753 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-08", "close": 3.205, "volume": 80507, "typical_volume": 81774.9, "trend": 3.021833, "fair_value": 1.954824, "relative_strength": 13.448408, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.674932, "energy": 36.207927, "activity_lines": [ 3.223, 3.219182, 3.129071, 3.078957 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-15", "close": 3.21, "volume": 52745, "typical_volume": 82823.75, "trend": 3.0365, "fair_value": 1.96851, "relative_strength": 10.38762, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.861167, "energy": 30.004924, "activity_lines": [ 3.218333, 3.223182, 3.144, 3.091097 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-22", "close": 3.195, "volume": 39140, "typical_volume": 82917.25, "trend": 3.050333, "fair_value": 1.982324, "relative_strength": 10.441717, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.620638, "energy": 26.011331, "activity_lines": [ 3.21, 3.220091, 3.155881, 3.101323 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-29", "close": 2.735, "volume": 274546, "typical_volume": 91301.75, "trend": 3.035833, "fair_value": 1.993221, 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1.2136, "fair_value": 2.193032, "relative_strength": -27.066065, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 6.299448, "energy": 10.03788, "activity_lines": [ 1.228333, 1.245545, 1.198338, 1.185228 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.215, "volume": 202624, "typical_volume": 236451.4, "trend": 1.205933, "fair_value": 2.179923, "relative_strength": -23.570017, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 6.086602, "energy": 9.740947, "activity_lines": [ 1.219333, 1.241636, 1.204514, 1.185318 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.205, "volume": 103889, "typical_volume": 224064.35, "trend": 1.194267, "fair_value": 2.166942, "relative_strength": -25.47806, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 2.470354, "energy": 11.784201, "activity_lines": [ 1.208, 1.234455, 1.209286, 1.185258 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }