{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3d37de53-938b-41ce-9d91-b515e31bd12f", "symbol": "IGET", "name": "INVESCO MS GLBL ENERGY TRANS ID", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 56.653, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -1.652, "architecture_energy": 29.891, "architecture_maturity": 59.044, "architecture_confidence": 84.725, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.53, "rotation_up": 16.68, "upward_expansion": 46.73, "deceleration": 84.87, "rotation_down": 49.97, "downward_expansion": 38.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.904001, 23.443665, 23.736751, 23.317416 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 22.940001, "trend_reference": 22.619141, "distance_from_trend": 0.014185, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.761819, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.368587, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.85152, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.102427, "excess_performance": -0.017994, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.014185, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.075765, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.368587, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.137794, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.018515, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.155146, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.102427, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.287064, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 379, "relative_activity": 0.6507, "balance": 0.287064, "dry_up": 1.469654, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033578, "annualized_volatility": 0.191214, "from_high_reference": -0.085327, "from_low_reference": 0.35131 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.619141, "fair_value_reference": 16.761819, "structural_low": 20.578981, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.016008, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.010541, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.004184, "worst_return": -0.032986, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.037971, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.056449, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.071789, "worst_return": -0.14773, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.166709, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.088048, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.249068, "worst_return": 0.08435, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.305273, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.054994, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.305273, "worst_return": 0.305273, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.050525, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.003225, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.101765, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.031631, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.129773, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003681, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.221767, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005259, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 13.309189, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, 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"gate": "up", "direction": 38.167329, "energy": 27.999451, "activity_lines": [ 24.019752, 24.214832, 23.90573, 23.25095 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.82, "volume": 1517, "typical_volume": 572.45, "trend": 22.398526, "fair_value": 16.646155, "relative_strength": 0.510873, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.965767, "energy": 19.818359, "activity_lines": [ 23.5395, 23.938239, 23.867044, 23.285977 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.450001, "volume": 821, "typical_volume": 598.5, "trend": 22.504162, "fair_value": 16.702172, "relative_strength": -0.751165, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -15.011088, "energy": 30.622655, "activity_lines": [ 23.081334, 23.627861, 23.782448, 23.289298 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.940001, "volume": 379, "typical_volume": 582.45, "trend": 22.619141, "fair_value": 16.761819, "relative_strength": -1.85152, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -1.65176, "energy": 29.891476, "activity_lines": [ 22.904001, 23.443665, 23.736751, 23.317416 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }