{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3d38d4b2-a081-4dac-86f6-b31d79cdc471", "symbol": "ZMT", "name": "BMO Equal Weight Global Base Metals Hedged to CAD Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 93.066, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 8.822, "architecture_energy": 11.553, "architecture_maturity": 16.667, "architecture_confidence": 47.838, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.22, "rotation_up": 23.93, "upward_expansion": 15.87, "deceleration": 61.36, "rotation_down": 46.25, "downward_expansion": 40.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 127.471335, 127.744183, 130.251667, 128.919806 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 139.300003, "trend_reference": 127.608334, "distance_from_trend": 0.091622, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 80.07583, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.739601, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 9.8502, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.107489, "excess_performance": -0.012932, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.091622, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.076672, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.739601, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.108006, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.098502, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.137315, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.107489, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.426901, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2900, "relative_activity": 0.229703, "balance": 0.426901, "dry_up": 0.631683, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070805, "annualized_volatility": 0.45961, "from_high_reference": -0.043072, "from_low_reference": 0.852986 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 127.608334, "fair_value_reference": 80.07583, "structural_low": 103.510002, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.085997, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.064845, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.026905, "worst_return": -0.149653, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.048903, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.072225, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.057779, "worst_return": -0.203194, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.092453, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.025036, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.168065, "worst_return": -0.091979, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.060482, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.051367, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.033438, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.136508, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.023407, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Established", 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16785.0, "trend": 125.584094, "fair_value": 78.346203, "relative_strength": 3.315026, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.999452, "energy": 15.913447, "activity_lines": [ 129.208001, 132.439818, 131.202999, 129.131313 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 117.900002, "volume": 20000, "typical_volume": 16760.0, "trend": 126.019922, "fair_value": 78.73595, "relative_strength": -2.768165, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.806807, "energy": 33.377242, "activity_lines": [ 124.528668, 129.500364, 130.203285, 128.635565 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 123.440002, "volume": 3400, "typical_volume": 14985.0, "trend": 126.517667, "fair_value": 79.145975, "relative_strength": 1.110684, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.107216, "energy": 30.781463, "activity_lines": [ 123.152669, 127.902001, 129.811762, 128.469118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 121.099998, "volume": 5600, "typical_volume": 13530.0, "trend": 126.896667, "fair_value": 79.543403, "relative_strength": -0.791038, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.652718, "energy": 39.223378, "activity_lines": [ 122.062001, 126.052182, 129.179619, 128.119591 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 139.300003, "volume": 2900, "typical_volume": 12625.0, "trend": 127.608334, "fair_value": 80.07583, "relative_strength": 9.8502, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 8.82154, "energy": 11.552778, "activity_lines": [ 127.471335, 127.744183, 130.251667, 128.919806 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }