{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3d3b311a-0488-4f74-89ae-bf1e9a634efa", "symbol": "FSI", "name": "Flagship Investments Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -24.009, "architecture_energy": 19.356, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 77.422, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.66, "rotation_up": 32.01, "upward_expansion": 22.83, "deceleration": 44.02, "rotation_down": 20.52, "downward_expansion": 56.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.302667, 1.282273, 1.285381, 1.336893 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 1.355, "trend_reference": 1.421945, "distance_from_trend": -0.04708, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.714975, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.209901, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -21.348688, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.138174, "excess_performance": -0.20188, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.04708, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.112994, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.209901, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053726, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.213487, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.069247, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.138174, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.520673, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 66581, "relative_activity": 1.455343, "balance": 0.520673, "dry_up": 0.906177, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040023, "annualized_volatility": 0.336712, "from_high_reference": -0.37392, "from_low_reference": 0.148305 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.421945, "fair_value_reference": 1.714975, "structural_low": 1.18, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.47619, "directional_follow_through": 0.47619, "median_excess_return": -0.017077, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.135295, "worst_return": -0.2, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.035967, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.028944, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.098361, "worst_return": -0.141354, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.038909, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.038538, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.176127, "worst_return": -0.246138, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"typical_volume": 64146.2, "trend": 1.450109, "fair_value": 1.717338, "relative_strength": -22.76698, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.035948, "energy": 38.162036, "activity_lines": [ 1.275, 1.266455, 1.289333, 1.354258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.26, "volume": 64533, "typical_volume": 51095.0, "trend": 1.434039, "fair_value": 1.715852, "relative_strength": -25.100567, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.163394, "energy": 33.338438, "activity_lines": [ 1.275667, 1.265273, 1.282048, 1.341993 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.355, "volume": 66581, "typical_volume": 45749.35, "trend": 1.421945, "fair_value": 1.714975, "relative_strength": -21.348688, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.009118, "energy": 19.355697, "activity_lines": [ 1.302667, 1.282273, 1.285381, 1.336893 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }