{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "3d50d1f5-bf5d-4681-9266-4aec34f8f283",
    "symbol": "MDYG",
    "name": "STATE STREET SPDR S&P 400 MID CAP GROWTH ETF",
    "exchange": "NYSEARCA",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 59.185,
    "architecture_energy": 33.91,
    "architecture_maturity": 43.861,
    "architecture_confidence": 84.659,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 31.18,
        "rotation_up": 37.97,
        "upward_expansion": 62.75,
        "deceleration": 87.05,
        "rotation_down": 26.01,
        "downward_expansion": 15.09
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        108.994,
        109.028543,
        108.04358,
        105.984125
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 112.06,
    "trend_reference": 103.431689,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.08342,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 86.844071,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.290359,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 1.654799,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.124352,
    "excess_performance": -0.001273,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.08342,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.055475,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.290359,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.005549,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.016548,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.012207,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.124352,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.925925,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 506479,
      "relative_activity": 1.155336,
      "balance": 0.925925,
      "dry_up": 1.009668,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.032318,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.158151,
      "from_high_reference": -0.000981,
      "from_low_reference": 0.291085
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 103.431689,
      "fair_value_reference": 86.844071,
      "structural_low": 92.42,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 13,
        "median_return": -0.008856,
        "positive_rate": 0.461538,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.461538,
        "median_excess_return": -0.009541,
        "regime_survival": 0.538462,
        "best_return": 0.051256,
        "worst_return": -0.06543,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.019496,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.033934,
        "regime_survival": 0.166667,
        "best_return": 0.05807,
        "worst_return": -0.177854,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.057266,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.038293,
        "regime_survival": 0.2,
        "best_return": 0.25778,
        "worst_return": 0.010735,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.156171,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.073211,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.329808,
        "worst_return": -0.017465,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-06-21",
        "end": "2024-08-30",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.032247,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-09-06",
        "end": "2024-10-04",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.067958,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-10-11",
        "end": "2024-12-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.011609,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-01-03",
        "end": "2025-02-28",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.034162,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-03-07",
        "end": "2025-03-14",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.020238,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-03-21",
        "end": "2025-05-23",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.03785,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-05-30",
        "end": "2025-06-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.032829,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-07-04",
        "end": "2025-08-01",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.013529,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2025-10-17",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.028382,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-10-24",
        "end": "2025-12-12",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.008509,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-12-19",
        "end": "2026-03-27",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.006287,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-04-03",
        "end": "2026-04-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.078443,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2026-07-24",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.033813,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-07-31",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.049251,
        "active": true
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    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-01",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 442056.95,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 108.802662,
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        "typical_volume": 457706.65,
        "trend": 97.995375,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "typical_volume": 461423.0,
        "trend": 98.522537,
        "fair_value": 84.603235,
        "relative_strength": 2.627528,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
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        "energy": 51.78207,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "typical_volume": 464491.75,
        "trend": 99.183085,
        "fair_value": 84.866431,
        "relative_strength": 4.372096,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "fair_value": 85.143699,
        "relative_strength": 4.102152,
        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "trend": 100.486292,
        "fair_value": 85.400832,
        "relative_strength": 6.148858,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 66.587514,
        "energy": 59.744545,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 109.87,
        "volume": 401387,
        "typical_volume": 420167.75,
        "trend": 101.049152,
        "fair_value": 85.660819,
        "relative_strength": 3.698252,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
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        "direction": 64.372676,
        "energy": 57.827208,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "volume": 313683,
        "typical_volume": 419573.55,
        "trend": 101.566049,
        "fair_value": 85.901632,
        "relative_strength": 1.293746,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 60.80126,
        "energy": 48.725187,
        "activity_lines": [
          109.596178,
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          104.35958
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 107.34,
        "volume": 349829,
        "typical_volume": 418220.1,
        "trend": 102.03029,
        "fair_value": 86.126766,
        "relative_strength": 1.449868,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 48.450658,
        "energy": 37.29359,
        "activity_lines": [
          108.799368,
          108.81379,
          106.817548,
          104.732093
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 107.97,
        "volume": 441762,
        "typical_volume": 420222.95,
        "trend": 102.479182,
        "fair_value": 86.354938,
        "relative_strength": 2.597807,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 43.995037,
        "energy": 30.884278,
        "activity_lines": [
          108.361333,
          108.744823,
          107.188157,
          105.1153
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 106.8,
        "volume": 472412,
        "typical_volume": 427335.45,
        "trend": 102.91404,
        "fair_value": 86.581551,
        "relative_strength": 0.366645,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 37.682658,
        "energy": 21.644732,
        "activity_lines": [
          107.694,
          108.410359,
          107.393053,
          105.394063
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 112.06,
        "volume": 506479,
        "typical_volume": 438382.4,
        "trend": 103.431689,
        "fair_value": 86.844071,
        "relative_strength": 1.654799,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 59.185232,
        "energy": 33.909777,
        "activity_lines": [
          108.994,
          109.028543,
          108.04358,
          105.984125
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}