{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3d536b34-d1d4-4e09-b9e2-67d0429e310d", "symbol": "ALGEN", "name": "genOway Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 anonyme", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 66.611, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 17.481, "architecture_energy": 20.281, "architecture_maturity": 7.993, "architecture_confidence": 40.588, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.5, "rotation_up": 54.68, "upward_expansion": 38.91, "deceleration": 32.39, "rotation_down": 16.28, "downward_expansion": 13.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.486, 2.452364, 2.439905, 2.440215 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.51, "trend_reference": 2.449, "distance_from_trend": 0.024908, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.381503, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.257727, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.641189, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.008032, "excess_performance": -0.045279, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.024908, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012765, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.257727, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028739, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.086412, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026412, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.008032, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.926724, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 28825, "relative_activity": 0.870941, "balance": 0.926724, "dry_up": 2.117504, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054551, "annualized_volatility": 0.233592, "from_high_reference": -0.215625, "from_low_reference": 0.195238 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.449, "fair_value_reference": 3.381503, "structural_low": 2.18, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.001305, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.0021, "regime_survival": 0.55, "best_return": 0.129346, "worst_return": -0.085938, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.004831, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.029647, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.142857, "worst_return": -0.140992, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.018667, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.03029, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.087379, "worst_return": -0.099217, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.042996, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.087207, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.066489, "worst_return": -0.241895, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-10-20", "end": "2024-01-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.077694, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-02-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.056235, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-03-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.030769, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.043478, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.069212, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.106796, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.02046, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.002611, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.12013, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.124638, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.197368, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.076, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.06639, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.012097, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 3.61, "volume": 25874, "typical_volume": 30023.1, "trend": 3.848333, "fair_value": 3.663077, "relative_strength": -9.649035, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": 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2.392, 2.416619, 2.433527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.4, "volume": 38996, "typical_volume": 25573.45, "trend": 2.463333, "fair_value": 3.41458, "relative_strength": -10.932429, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.57791, "energy": 30.327777, "activity_lines": [ 2.378, 2.390909, 2.414143, 2.429312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.57, "volume": 184147, "typical_volume": 33310.15, "trend": 2.461667, "fair_value": 3.406439, "relative_strength": -4.111667, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.83865, "energy": 7.24504, "activity_lines": [ 2.443333, 2.420545, 2.42819, 2.436194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.48, "volume": 54736, "typical_volume": 34109.75, "trend": 2.457333, "fair_value": 3.397849, "relative_strength": -7.344735, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -1.931937, "energy": 9.883075, "activity_lines": [ 2.467333, 2.432545, 2.433048, 2.437376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.44, "volume": 12619, "typical_volume": 33723.4, "trend": 2.448667, "fair_value": 3.389388, "relative_strength": -9.679771, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 7.069349, "energy": 12.138407, "activity_lines": [ 2.469333, 2.436, 2.43319, 2.436258 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.51, "volume": 28825, "typical_volume": 33096.4, "trend": 2.449, "fair_value": 3.381503, "relative_strength": -8.641189, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 17.480725, "energy": 20.281164, "activity_lines": [ 2.486, 2.452364, 2.439905, 2.440215 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }