{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3d56f4b2-ea34-4a20-980d-e0a3df3939a5", "symbol": "230480", "name": "Kiwoom KOSEF USD Futures Inverse 2X Special Assets ETF Investment Trust - USD-Derivatives (Synth)", "exchange": "KSC", "country": "KR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^KS11", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 49.609, "architecture_energy": 68.799, "architecture_maturity": 8.508, "architecture_confidence": 74.801, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.97, "rotation_up": 77.04, "upward_expansion": 54.91, "deceleration": 19.85, "rotation_down": 14.01, "downward_expansion": 27.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 4239.0, 4074.636364, 4004.142857, 4020.387097 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4400.0, "trend_reference": 4069.0, "distance_from_trend": 0.081347, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4890.128205, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.100228, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -20.334019, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.043891, "excess_performance": -0.185938, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.081347, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024649, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.100228, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.082584, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.20334, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.323902, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.043891, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.011279, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13267, "relative_activity": 0.193462, "balance": 4.011279, "dry_up": 0.514293, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034528, "annualized_volatility": 0.188189, "from_high_reference": -0.096509, "from_low_reference": 0.195652 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4069.0, "fair_value_reference": 4890.128205, "structural_low": 3680.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.01086, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.026562, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.063456, "worst_return": -0.069533, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.034183, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.08826, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.004115, "worst_return": -0.130317, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.107264, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.183424, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.007246, "worst_return": -0.175566, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.047764, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.051198, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.04321, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.045908, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.056065, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": 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-6.366753, "energy": 16.745732, "activity_lines": [ 3974.0, 3903.909091, 3926.952381, 3981.408602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4335.0, "volume": 63056, "typical_volume": 71428.25, "trend": 4064.833333, "fair_value": 4899.262821, "relative_strength": -26.791545, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 44.544571, "energy": 44.372305, "activity_lines": [ 4115.333333, 3987.454545, 3963.119048, 3998.763441 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4400.0, "volume": 13267, "typical_volume": 68576.7, "trend": 4069.0, "fair_value": 4890.128205, "relative_strength": -20.334019, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 49.608867, "energy": 68.798558, "activity_lines": [ 4239.0, 4074.636364, 4004.142857, 4020.387097 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }