{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3d5c7b11-4cbf-46e1-b019-048b5b12743e", "symbol": "CAPE", "name": "Ossiam Shiller Barclays Cape Europe Sector Value TR UCITS ETF 1C EUR Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 77.015, "architecture_energy": 87.067, "architecture_maturity": 95.856, "architecture_confidence": 77.718, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.09, "rotation_up": 77.35, "upward_expansion": 96.34, "deceleration": 42.34, "rotation_down": 12.59, "downward_expansion": 20.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 672.600008, 664.981821, 656.95619, 646.798924 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 677.700012, "trend_reference": 631.473332, "distance_from_trend": 0.073204, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 534.436218, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.268065, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.911028, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.135556, "excess_performance": -0.035335, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.073204, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05604, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.268065, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036474, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.01911, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027544, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.135556, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.175532, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 74, "relative_activity": 0.290424, "balance": 5.175532, "dry_up": 0.584772, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017843, "annualized_volatility": 0.116415, "from_high_reference": -0.004407, "from_low_reference": 0.355671 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 631.473332, "fair_value_reference": 534.436218, "structural_low": 587.299988, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.007522, "positive_rate": 0.59375, "directional_follow_through": 0.59375, "median_excess_return": -0.001502, "regime_survival": 0.71875, "best_return": 0.070337, "worst_return": -0.041599, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.029057, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": 0.010654, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.095431, "worst_return": -0.083819, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.058375, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.031153, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.145334, "worst_return": -0.049536, "sufficient": true 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"2026-07-31", "close": 677.5, "volume": 212, "typical_volume": 263.4, "trend": 627.776664, "fair_value": 533.107692, "relative_strength": 1.030708, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.084836, "energy": 76.703024, "activity_lines": [ 668.266671, 661.412727, 653.722855, 643.578063 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 677.700012, "volume": 74, "typical_volume": 254.8, "trend": 631.473332, "fair_value": 534.436218, "relative_strength": -1.911028, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.014745, "energy": 87.067351, "activity_lines": [ 672.600008, 664.981821, 656.95619, 646.798924 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }