{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3d5da3e2-bcfb-44b8-abf6-e7ecb1c0e808", "symbol": "MDWD", "name": "Mediwound Ltd", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.764, "architecture_energy": 41.742, "architecture_maturity": 56.788, "architecture_confidence": 94.893, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.05, "rotation_up": 23.06, "upward_expansion": 5.69, "deceleration": 50.15, "rotation_down": 51.1, "downward_expansion": 79.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.308667, 14.449636, 14.939524, 15.434903 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 14.39, "trend_reference": 16.072667, "distance_from_trend": -0.104691, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.028718, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.102236, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.86873, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.191119, "excess_performance": -0.378572, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.104691, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072285, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.102236, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.163646, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.258687, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011917, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.191119, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.695316, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 284962, "relative_activity": 0.668122, "balance": 0.695316, "dry_up": 0.798197, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.074984, "annualized_volatility": 0.366846, "from_high_reference": -0.291133, "from_low_reference": 0.062777 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.072667, "fair_value_reference": 16.028718, "structural_low": 13.54, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.025905, "positive_rate": 0.566667, "directional_follow_through": 0.433333, "median_excess_return": -0.012894, "regime_survival": 0.866667, "best_return": 0.301471, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.107177, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.091288, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.359331, "worst_return": -0.335714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.090909, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.082024, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.109957, "worst_return": -0.34375, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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437502.35, "trend": 16.650333, "fair_value": 15.899963, "relative_strength": -29.489358, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.320197, "energy": 44.526032, "activity_lines": [ 14.690667, 14.785636, 15.492619, 15.976065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.61, "volume": 409176, "typical_volume": 433593.85, "trend": 16.511667, "fair_value": 15.930156, "relative_strength": -23.966088, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.704223, "energy": 37.119475, "activity_lines": [ 14.687333, 14.693455, 15.361095, 15.84443 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.23, "volume": 349604, "typical_volume": 430008.9, "trend": 16.359667, "fair_value": 15.960897, "relative_strength": -23.936124, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.416944, "energy": 42.94947, "activity_lines": [ 14.531333, 14.567818, 15.20619, 15.697226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.12, "volume": 318021, "typical_volume": 428419.35, "trend": 16.216333, "fair_value": 15.993654, "relative_strength": -24.24098, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.909281, "energy": 47.122409, "activity_lines": [ 14.339333, 14.461818, 15.054143, 15.552731 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.39, "volume": 284962, "typical_volume": 426511.95, "trend": 16.072667, "fair_value": 16.028718, "relative_strength": -25.86873, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.764141, "energy": 41.74209, "activity_lines": [ 14.308667, 14.449636, 14.939524, 15.434903 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }